Osasuna vs Real Madrid Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Osasuna
Real Madrid
📍 Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 22.0%
Away: 65.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.45
EV: 86.0%
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for goals (Osasuna 2.0 for, 1.2 against; Real Madrid 2.4 for, 1.2 against in last 5). Season over 2.5 rates are 41.7% (Osasuna) and 58.3% (Real Madrid). H2H often sees 3+ goals. Odds offer significant value versus model probability.
btts — yes@ 3.8
EV: 77.0%
Osasuna have scored in 4 of last 5, and BTTS has landed in 4 of their last 5. Real Madrid have conceded in 3 of last 5. Model probability is much higher than odds imply.
Match Analysis
Real Madrid travel to El Sadar in strong form, topping La Liga and boasting a formidable away record. Osasuna are mid-table but have been solid at home, scoring regularly and showing resilience. Real Madrid's attack is in top gear, but Osasuna have enough threat to trouble them, especially with their recent home scoring run. The visitors are clear favourites, but Osasuna's home form and recent attacking output suggest they can get on the scoresheet. Expect Madrid to control the game, but goals at both ends are likely.
Key Factors
- →Real Madrid have won 7 of last 10 H2H, unbeaten in all 10.
- →Real Madrid average 2.21 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game this season.
- →Osasuna have scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 matches.
- →Osasuna's home record: 6W, 3D, 2L, 20 scored, 13 conceded.
- →Real Madrid's away record: 8W, 3D, 1L, 24 scored, 11 conceded.
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal rates in recent matches.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Osasuna's defence can be inconsistent; Real Madrid's attack may overwhelm them.
- ⚠️Real Madrid are heavy favourites, but away upsets are possible.
- ⚠️Osasuna's high BTTS rate may regress against a top defence.
- ⚠️Some averages based on small sample of last 5 matches; variance possible.
- ⚠️No lineups available yet; late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.