Parma vs Cagliari Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Parma
Cagliari
📍 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
🗓️ Friday, 27 Feb 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 33.0%
Draw: 39.0%
Away: 28.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
64.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
correct_score — 1-1
Both teams have struggled for goals and have similar defensive records. Recent form and H2H suggest a tight, low-scoring draw is likely.
double_chance — X2
Cagliari have dominated recent H2H and Parma have a poor home record. Cagliari are slightly more consistent away than Parma are at home.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.1
EV: -9.0%
Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game, and 64% of their last 5 combined matches finished under 2.5. However, odds are very short.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two evenly matched sides struggling for consistency and goals. Parma come in with two wins but have a poor home record and have scored only 10 goals in 13 home games. Cagliari have a slightly better attack but are unreliable on the road. Both teams have similar defensive numbers and are tied on points in the league. Recent head-to-heads strongly favor Cagliari, but the underlying stats point to a low-scoring, tense encounter where neither side is likely to dominate.
Key Factors
- →Both teams have exactly 29 points and negative goal differences.
- →Parma's home record: 3W-4D-6L, only 10 goals scored in 13 home games.
- →Cagliari's away record: 3W-4D-6L, 13 goals scored, 20 conceded.
- →Last 5 form: Parma (WWLLD), Cagliari (DLLWW), both inconsistent.
- →H2H: Cagliari unbeaten in last 3, 5 wins in last 10, Parma only 1 win.
- →Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game.
- →Injuries are not a factor; both squads at full strength.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, xG, etc.) are missing for Cagliari, reducing confidence in attack/defense estimates.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds imply much higher probability for 'btts: no' and 'under 2.5' than the model, so value is limited.
- ⚠️Parma's recent improvement may not be sustainable given weak underlying numbers.
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable and capable of both strong and weak performances.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.