Parma vs Verona Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Parma
Verona
📍 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Feb 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 21.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
81.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
correct_score — 1-0
Both teams have struggled to score (Parma 0.4, Verona 0.6 avg goals in last 5), with clean sheets and failed to score rates high. Parma's home edge and Verona's poor away defence increase 1-0 likelihood.
1x2 — draw@ 2.88
EV: 9.4%
The draw is slightly undervalued by the market compared to model probability (38% vs 34.7% implied). Both teams are low-scoring and draw-prone (Parma 8, Verona 9 draws in 24).
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.09
EV: -4.7%
Both teams average <1 goal scored per game, and 67%+ of Parma's home games and 41% of Verona's away games finish under 2.5. Recent form and H2H also support a low-scoring match.
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two of Serie A's lowest-scoring sides, with Parma hosting relegation-threatened Verona. Both teams have struggled for goals and wins, especially recently, and their last 5 matches show a combined average of just 1 goal scored per game. Parma's home form is weak but Verona's away record is even worse, conceding nearly 2 goals per away game. Injuries further weaken Verona's midfield and defence, while Parma also miss some squad players. Expect a tight, low-quality contest with few clear chances, where a single goal may decide the outcome.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average less than 1 goal scored per game (season and last 5).
- →Parma have 3 clean sheets in last 5, Verona 2; both failed to score in 3 of last 5.
- →Verona's away defence is poor (22 conceded in 12 away), Parma home attack is weak (8 in 12).
- →Head-to-heads are often close, but recent matches have produced goals for both sides.
- →Multiple injuries for Verona in midfield and defence; Parma miss some attacking options.
- →Draws are common for both (Parma 8, Verona 9 in 24 matches).
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favour under 2.5 and BTTS no, matching model view.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some recent match stats missing (shots, possession) for several games.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; injury impact on starting XIs is estimated.
- ⚠️Both teams have volatile form and may rotate due to poor league positions.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games can be decided by random events (e.g. set pieces, cards).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.