PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
PEC Zwolle
Full Time
Excelsior
📍 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
🗓️ Sunday, 12 Apr 2026 at 12:30
Match Result
7.6/10Late Drama as PEC Zwolle and Excelsior Share Spoils in Four-Goal Thriller
PEC Zwolle and Excelsior played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at the MAC³PARK Stadion, with both sides exchanging blows in a match that ebbed and flowed from the opening whistle. The hosts struck early, but Excelsior responded well, and neither side could hold onto a lead as the match produced four goals and plenty of drama. Zwolle took the initiative with a third-minute opener, only for Excelsior to level just after the quarter-hour mark. The second half followed a similar script: Zwolle regained the lead on the hour, but Excelsior struck back ten minutes from time to ensure a deserved point. The stats reflected the evenness of the contest, with Excelsior edging possession (51%) and total shots (16 to 15), but Zwolle matching their visitors for attacking intent and quality.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Koen Kostons opens the scoring for PEC Zwolle with an early strike.
16' — Goal
Noah Naujoks levels for Excelsior, finishing off a swift move.
60' — Goal
Odysseus Velanas restores Zwolle's lead with a well-taken goal.
80' — Goal
Lennard Hartjes scores Excelsior's second equalizer, ensuring a share of the spoils.
67' — Yellow Card
Excelsior's Rick Meissen is booked for a late challenge.
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle started brightly, immediately putting Excelsior under pressure and capitalizing with an early goal. Their attacking quartet, operating in a 4-2-3-1, looked lively throughout, creating 15 shots and forcing five saves. Zwolle showed resilience to retake the lead in the second half, but ultimately could not hold out, conceding late to settle for a draw. Defensively, Zwolle were organized for much of the game, but struggled at times to contain Excelsior’s midfield runners, particularly in transition. Despite enjoying slightly less possession, they were efficient in attack and maintained discipline, avoiding any bookings.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Excelsior
Excelsior responded impressively to falling behind so early, showing composure and tactical discipline in their 5-4-1 setup. They gradually asserted themselves, enjoying a slight edge in possession (51%) and registering 16 shots, though only three were on target. Their resilience was rewarded with an equalizer in each half, the second coming late to snatch a point. Excelsior’s back five absorbed pressure well, and their midfield worked tirelessly to close down Zwolle’s creative players. However, their attacking play was sometimes blunted, with limited clear chances despite their shot tally. A single yellow card reflected a competitive but controlled performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
PEC Zwolle set up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to control midfield with Thomas and Buurmeester shielding the back four and allowing the trio of Namli, Oosting, and Velanas to support Kostons up front. Their approach was direct and aggressive early, pressing Excelsior’s back line and exploiting spaces between the lines. Zwolle’s full-backs, Floranus and Garcia McNulty, offered width, but were occasionally exposed on the break. Excelsior’s 5-4-1 formation prioritized defensive solidity, with three central defenders and two wing-backs restricting Zwolle’s attacking lanes. Their midfield four pressed energetically, and the lone striker, Naujoks, was supported by late runs from midfield. Excelsior’s tactical discipline allowed them to weather Zwolle’s pressure and strike back on the counter, particularly in the latter stages of each half. Set pieces were less influential, with corners (5-2 in Zwolle’s favor) not yielding clear chances.
Turning Point
Hartjes’ 80th-minute equalizer, which capped Excelsior’s late pressure and denied Zwolle all three points.
Man of the Match
Lennard Hartjes
Delivered the crucial late equalizer and was a driving force in Excelsior’s midfield, ensuring his side left Zwolle with a point.
Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 46.0%
Draw: 33.0%
Away: 21.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
68.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.55
EV: -3.0%
PEC Zwolle have a strong home record (7W/3D/4L), Excelsior are in poor form (LDLLL), and Zwolle have dominated recent H2H at home. However, the odds offer little value versus model probability.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.3
EV: 12.0%
Model probability (0.34) exceeds the implied probability of the odds (0.30), and both teams have season over 2.5 rates above 58%. Value edge present despite recent low-scoring form.
correct_score — 1-0
Most likely correct score based on defensive improvement, low recent attacking output, and H2H trends.
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Excelsior in a crucial Eredivisie relegation battle. Zwolle, with a solid home record and slightly better recent form, face an Excelsior side on a five-game winless run. Both teams have struggled for goals lately, but Zwolle's home advantage and historical dominance in this fixture give them the edge. Expect a tense, low-scoring encounter, with Zwolle likely to edge it by a narrow margin.
Key Factors
- →PEC Zwolle's home record: 7W/3D/4L, 18:17 GF:GA.
- →Excelsior's away record: 3W/4D/7L, 15:28 GF:GA.
- →Recent form: Zwolle (LWDDD), Excelsior (LDLLL), both struggling for wins.
- →Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game in last 5.
- →H2H: Zwolle have won 6 of last 10, including 3 of last 4 at home.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Both teams with low clean sheet rates (17.24%), but also low recent attacking output.
- →Season over 2.5 goal % is high for both (Zwolle 62%, Excelsior 59%), but recent matches trend under.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent attacking output is poor for both sides, increasing variance in low-scoring predictions.
- ⚠️Excelsior's away form is inconsistent; capable of surprise results.
- ⚠️Limited data on set pieces and cards for Excelsior in last 5.
- ⚠️Market odds on main outcomes are tight; value is marginal.
- ⚠️No lineups available at time of analysis; late team news could affect probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.