Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Piast Gliwice
Pogon Szczecin
📍 Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Gliwice
🗓️ Monday, 13 Apr 2026 at 17:00
Original Pre-Match Prediction
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 41.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.4
EV: 48.8%
Both teams have over 2.5 goals in 55% of matches this season. Piast's last 5 have averaged 4.2 goals total, and both teams' defences are below average. Odds for over 2.5 are generous relative to model probability.
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 84.0%
Piast have seen BTTS in all last 5, and Pogon have scored in 3 of last 5. Both teams' defences are leaky, and the price is value versus model.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin, both with similar records and motivation to secure safety. Piast have been in better recent form, especially in attack, averaging over 2 goals per game in their last 5 and scoring in every match. Pogon have struggled away (2 wins in 13) and are on a two-game losing streak, but still carry some attacking threat. Recent H2H meetings have been tight but have trended toward Piast at home. Expect a competitive match, with Piast slightly favoured, but both teams capable of scoring. The odds for goals are generous given the underlying stats.
Key Factors
- →Piast's last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses, scored in all, 2.2 goals per game.
- →Pogon away: 2 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses, 10:23 goal difference.
- →Both teams: over 2.5 goals in 55% of season matches.
- →Piast: BTTS in all last 5 matches.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Piast's home record slightly better than Pogon's away.
- →H2H: Piast unbeaten in last 3 at home vs Pogon.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (e.g., full shots/corners for all last 5).
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and mid-table, so motivation may vary.
- ⚠️H2H history is mixed, with several draws and low-scoring games in past seasons.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest a lower goal expectation than model.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.