Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction
Championship · England
Portsmouth
Derby
📍 Fratton Park, Portsmouth
🗓️ Monday, 16 Mar 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 22.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 42.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
double_chance — X2
Derby have a much stronger away record (8W, 3D, 7L) and are 7th in the table, while Portsmouth are struggling (19th, L3 of last 5). Derby have also avoided defeat in 9 of the last 10 H2H. The model gives high probability to Derby avoiding defeat.
btts — yes
Both teams have scored in 4 of Portsmouth's last 5 and 3 of Derby's last 5. H2H history is also BTTS-heavy (7/10).
over_under_2_5 — over
Both teams' season over 2.5 rates are above 44%, and recent matches suggest defensive frailties. Derby average 1.46 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
Match Analysis
Portsmouth are struggling for form and sit just above the relegation zone, while Derby are pushing for the playoffs and have a strong away record. Portsmouth's home form is poor, with only 6 wins in 18, and their recent results show defensive issues. Derby, despite some inconsistency, have more attacking threat and better recent performances. The H2H history is draw-heavy, but Derby have the edge overall. Expect a competitive match, with Derby likely to take at least a point and goals at both ends.
Key Factors
- →Derby are 7th with a positive away record (8W, 3D, 7L), Portsmouth are 19th and winless in their last 4.
- →Portsmouth's home record is weak (6W, 4D, 8L, 19GF/19GA).
- →Derby average 1.46 goals scored per game, Portsmouth only 1.0.
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5.
- →H2H: 6 draws in last 10, but Derby unbeaten in last 6 vs Portsmouth.
- →No significant injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some recent Portsmouth match stats missing (shots, possession, etc.), slightly reducing confidence.
- ⚠️Championship is a volatile league; motivation and pressure could affect performance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.