PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
📍 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 17:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
3 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 77.0%
Draw: 16.0%
Away: 7.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.2
EV: 54.0%
Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Heerenveen have scored in 4 of their last 5. PSV's clean sheet rate is low (26%), and Heerenveen's defense is weak (2.6 conceded avg last 5). The odds imply much lower probability than model, creating strong value.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 2.4
EV: 66.0%
PSV matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 82.6% of games this season, and Heerenveen in nearly 70%. Recent H2H and both teams' attacking trends support a high-scoring match, while the odds offer significant value.
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven, top of the Eredivisie and dominant at home, host mid-table Heerenveen in a fixture that strongly favors the hosts. PSV have won 8 of 11 at home and score nearly 3 goals per game, but their defense has been vulnerable, with just 1 clean sheet in their last 5. Heerenveen have improved recently (back-to-back wins), but their away record is inconsistent and they concede nearly 2 per game. The H2H is overwhelmingly in PSV's favor, including a recent 4-1 cup win. Expect PSV to control the match, but Heerenveen's attack could trouble a leaky PSV defense, suggesting goals at both ends.
Key Factors
- →PSV's home attack: 36 goals in 11 home games (3.27 avg).
- →Heerenveen concede 1.7 per game overall, 1.64 away.
- →PSV have only 1 clean sheet in last 5; Heerenveen none in last 5.
- →Recent H2H: PSV won 4-1 (Feb), 2-0 (Dec), 2-1 (Mar).
- →Both teams have BTTS in 4 of last 5.
- →PSV's over 2.5 goal %: 82.6%.
- →No major injuries reported.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Heerenveen's defensive stats for recent matches are incomplete (missing shots, cards, etc).
- ⚠️PSV's recent loss to Volendam shows some volatility.
- ⚠️Cup match lineups may differ from league lineups.
- ⚠️Market odds may shift closer to kickoff.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.