Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Rennes
Toulouse
📍 Roazhon Park, Rennes
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Feb 2026 at 16:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 36.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 4.5
EV: 62.5%
Model probability (41%) is significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (22.2%), indicating strong value. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates in the last 5 and season, and Rennes' defence is inconsistent.
1x2 — draw@ 3.25
EV: 20.5%
Model sees this as a very even match (draw 37%), while the odds imply only 30.8%. Recent H2H and both teams' form support a high likelihood of a draw.
Match Analysis
Rennes and Toulouse meet at Roazhon Park in a clash between two closely matched mid-table Ligue 1 sides. Rennes have found recent form with back-to-back wins, including a strong showing against PSG, but their overall defensive record remains shaky. Toulouse, while less prolific in attack recently, have been solid defensively and are difficult to break down away from home. Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game over the season, and recent H2H encounters have been tight, with draws and narrow wins common. Expect a tactical, low-scoring contest where neither side dominates.
Key Factors
- →Rennes have won their last 2 games, including a convincing win over PSG.
- →Toulouse's last 5 Ligue 1 matches have produced just 3 goals for and 4 against.
- →Rennes' home record (6W, 3D, 2L) is solid, but Toulouse are competitive away (4W, 2D, 5L, just 11 conceded).
- →Recent H2H: 4 draws in last 10, 3 away wins for Toulouse, and 2-2 in the reverse fixture.
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game over the season.
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor Rennes, but model and H2H suggest a much closer contest.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Toulouse last 5 match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing, reducing confidence in attack/defence matchup.
- ⚠️Corners and card data for Toulouse is unavailable for recent games.
- ⚠️Rennes' defensive stats are volatile: 2 clean sheets in last 10, but 2 goals or more conceded in 4 of last 5.
- ⚠️Goal timing data for both teams is limited in the last 5.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.