Rot-Weiß Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction
3. Liga · Germany
Rot-Weiß Essen
Erzgebirge Aue
📍 Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Mar 2026 at 13:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 61.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 14.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.4
EV: 57.0%
Both teams have high BTTS rates in their last 5 (Essen 3/5, Aue 5/5), and both concede regularly. Odds imply only 29% but model sees 55% chance, creating strong value.
1x2 — home@ 1.3
EV: -2.0%
Essen's home form is strong (8W/4D/2L), Aue are poor away (1W/4D/8L). However, odds are short and value is marginal.
Match Analysis
Rot-Weiß Essen come into this fixture as clear favorites, buoyed by strong home form and recent wins. Erzgebirge Aue are in a poor run, losing four in a row, and have struggled away all season. Both teams tend to be involved in high-scoring games, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals frequent. Essen's attack should exploit Aue's leaky defense, but Aue have managed to score in every recent match, suggesting they can contribute to the scoreline.
Key Factors
- →Essen's home record: 8W/4D/2L, 2.0 goals scored per home game
- →Aue's away record: 1W/4D/8L, 1.0 goals scored, 1.85 conceded per away game
- →Recent form: Essen WWLLW, Aue LLLLD
- →High BTTS rates: Essen 3/5, Aue 5/5 last 5
- →Over 2.5 goals in 64% of both teams' games
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) are missing for recent games, reducing model confidence in set piece and shot-based projections.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed for this fixture.
- ⚠️Market odds for some outcomes (e.g., BTTS) may move before kickoff.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.