Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Sassuolo
Bologna
📍 MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
🗓️ Sunday, 15 Mar 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 30.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 32.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 76.0%
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 44%, well above the odds-implied 25%. Both teams have moderate attack and defensive vulnerabilities, and H2H shows 7/10 BTTS.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.8
EV: 63.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 is 29% vs odds-implied 21%. Sassuolo's matches have a 57% over 2.5 rate, and H2H has seen several 2+ goal games.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table Serie A clash between two closely matched sides, Sassuolo and Bologna, separated by just one point in the standings. Both teams have shown inconsistent form but are generally hard to beat, with a high draw probability. Sassuolo's recent home form is patchy, while Bologna have been strong away recently. Defensive improvement from Bologna is notable (4 clean sheets in last 5), but Sassuolo's attack at home remains a threat. Expect a tactical, cagey contest with a slight edge towards a low-scoring draw, but both teams have enough quality to find the net.
Key Factors
- →Both teams are mid-table, with similar points and goal differences.
- →Bologna have 4 clean sheets in last 5, but also allowed 2 goals in their most recent match.
- →Sassuolo's home record is average (6W 2D 6L), and they concede 1.43 goals/game at home.
- →Recent H2H: 7 of last 10 meetings saw both teams score; 4 draws in last 6.
- →Bologna's away attack is solid (23 goals in 14 away games).
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Bookmaker odds are even, but model finds value on BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Missing detailed shots, possession, and set piece data for Sassuolo's last 5 matches.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and capable of both strong and weak performances.
- ⚠️Low-scoring probability is high, but H2H and team profiles support some goal potential.
- ⚠️Market odds are very tight; margins for value are slim.
- ⚠️Europa League involvement for Bologna could affect rotation/fatigue but no injuries reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.