Southampton vs Charlton Prediction
Championship · England
Southampton
Charlton
📍 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 68.0%
Draw: 23.0%
Away: 9.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
79.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
1x2 — home@ 1.18
EV: 1.4%
Southampton have strong home form (7W/5D/3L), are on a 3-game winning streak, and have a significant attack/defence advantage over Charlton, who struggle away (3W/5D/8L, 14 GF, 24 GA).
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.65
EV: 13.9%
Model probability for over 2.5 (0.38) is higher than the odds-implied probability (0.27), and Southampton's home attack plus the previous H2H (5-1) suggest value.
btts — no@ 1.17
EV: -0.9%
Charlton average just 0.88 goals per away game and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5; Southampton have 3 clean sheets in last 5 and are defensively solid at home.
Match Analysis
Southampton come into this fixture in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five and with three consecutive wins. Their home record is strong, and they have shown both attacking threat and improved defensive solidity recently. Charlton, meanwhile, are inconsistent and struggle away from home, with only three wins and a poor goal difference on their travels. The H2H earlier this season ended 5-1 to Southampton, underlining the gulf in quality. Expect Southampton to control the match, limit Charlton's chances, and likely win without conceding.
Key Factors
- →Southampton are on a 3-match winning streak and unbeaten in 5.
- →Charlton have only 3 away wins from 16 and a -10 away goal difference.
- →Southampton average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 5.
- →Charlton average just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in last 5.
- →Previous H2H this season: Charlton 1-5 Southampton.
- →Southampton have 3 clean sheets in last 5; Charlton have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited data on shots/corners for some recent matches reduces set piece confidence.
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H; may not fully reflect current team strengths.
- ⚠️Championship is a volatile league; upsets possible, especially if Southampton rotate.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.