Southport vs Alfreton Town Prediction
National League - North · England
Southport
Alfreton Town
📍 Haig Avenue, Southport, Merseyside
🗓️ Tuesday, 17 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 45.0%
Draw: 34.0%
Away: 21.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
double_chance — 1X
Southport are in strong form (WWWDD), unbeaten in five, and have a solid home record with only four losses in 18 at Haig Avenue. Alfreton Town are winless in their last three away, have the league's worst away defense (42 conceded in 18), and sit 22nd. The draw is common in this fixture, but home defeat is less likely given recent trends.
btts — yes
BTTS has landed in 4 of Alfreton's last 5, and both teams have defensive weaknesses over the season. Southport have failed to score only once in their last five, while Alfreton have also scored in 4 of their last 5.
correct_score — 2-1
Southport's recent form and Alfreton's leaky away defense point to a narrow home win with both teams scoring. 2-1 fits the most likely outcome profile.
Match Analysis
Southport enter this match in excellent form, unbeaten in five and with three consecutive wins, while Alfreton Town are struggling near the foot of the table and have the league's worst away defense. Southport's home record is solid, and their recent defensive improvement (just 0.4 conceded per game in last five) contrasts with Alfreton's tendency to concede heavily on the road. The fixture history shows a high draw rate, but Southport's current momentum and Alfreton's away frailty suggest the hosts are best placed for a narrow victory, likely in a match where both sides find the net.
Key Factors
- →Southport unbeaten in last 5 (WWWDD), including 3 straight wins
- →Alfreton Town have lost 11 of 18 away, conceding 42 goals (2.33 per away game)
- →Southport home record: only 4 losses in 18, 29 scored, 23 conceded
- →Alfreton have not kept a clean sheet in last 5, BTTS in 4 of those
- →H2H: 4 draws in last 10, but Southport unbeaten in last 2 meetings
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set piece data reduces confidence in corners and cards predictions
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so no value bet edges can be calculated
- ⚠️Fixture has a high historical draw rate, which increases risk for win/draw bets
- ⚠️Lower league volatility and late-season motivation factors could impact performance
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.