Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam
NEC Nijmegen
📍 Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
🗓️ Tuesday, 17 Feb 2026 at 19:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 28.0%
Draw: 32.0%
Away: 40.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.2
EV: 92.0%
Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 10 H2H and both have failed to score in 0 of their last 5. NEC's matches have high BTTS and goals, and Sparta's defense has been leaky (1.64 conceded/game). Model probability is much higher than bookmaker implied probability.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3
EV: 74.0%
NEC away games average 4.36 goals, Sparta home games 2.82. Both teams' last 5 form suggests open play. Model probability (0.58) well above implied odds (0.33).
Match Analysis
This is a clash between two top-5 Eredivisie sides with attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. NEC Nijmegen arrive in slightly better form, scoring freely (2.59/game season, 2.2 last 5), but are also prone to conceding (1.73/game). Sparta Rotterdam are solid at home but have a negative goal difference and concede often. Both sides have scored in 4 of NEC's last 5 and 3 of Sparta's last 5. Recent H2H suggest tight but goal-friendly matches. Expect an open contest with both teams likely to score, but NEC's superior attack and recent away form give them the edge.
Key Factors
- →NEC have scored in every one of their last 5, averaging 2.2 goals/game.
- →Sparta have failed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- →NEC away matches see high goal totals (over 2.5 in 86% of season games).
- →Recent H2H: 7/10 BTTS, 6/10 over 2.5 goals.
- →NEC's away attack (27 in 11) is one of the league's best.
- →Sparta missing V. van Crooij (attacking threat), NEC missing S. Ouaissa (midfield) due to suspension.
- →Both teams are in the top 5, so motivation is high.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some team stats (shots, corners, cards) are incomplete for several recent matches.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; injury/suspension impact is estimated.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on 1x2 market seem off (home and away both at 1.85), but model leans away/draw.
- ⚠️Sparta's home form is decent but not dominant.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.