SSV Ulm 1846 vs Verl Prediction
3. Liga · Germany
SSV Ulm 1846
Verl
📍 Donaustadion, Ulm
🗓️ Sunday, 5 Apr 2026 at 11:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 3
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 22.0%
Away: 65.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
btts — yes@ 3.2
EV: 48.0%
Both teams have high BTTS rates recently (Ulm 5/5, Verl 2/5 but overall high scoring), Ulm's defense is very weak, and the odds for BTTS are significantly above model probability.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 1.5
EV: 8.0%
Both teams have high over 2.5 rates (Ulm 70%, Verl 80%), and both average high goals for and against. Attack/defense mismatch points to goals.
1x2 — away@ 1.38
EV: -5.0%
Verl are in far better form, third in the table, and Ulm have a very poor home record. Odds are short but reflect true probability.
Match Analysis
Verl travel to Ulm as strong favorites, riding a three-match winning streak and boasting one of the league's most potent attacks. Ulm are fighting relegation, winless in their last five, and have the worst defensive record in the league. Expect Verl to dominate the attacking phases, but Ulm's recent games have seen both teams score, suggesting the hosts could get on the scoresheet. Goals are likely, with Verl's firepower and Ulm's defensive frailty combining for a high-scoring encounter.
Key Factors
- →Verl's last 5 form: WWWLD, Ulm's: DLLLD
- →Verl average 2.33 goals scored per game, Ulm concede 2.07 per game
- →Ulm have lost 10 of 15 at home; Verl have 6 away wins and 5 draws
- →Ulm have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5, but have scored in all 5
- →Head-to-head: last meeting was a 5-0 win for Verl, but previous two won by Ulm
- →Both teams' matches frequently go over 2.5 goals (Ulm 70%, Verl 80%)
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited detailed stats (shots, possession) for recent matches, especially for Verl
- ⚠️Small H2H sample size (3 matches), with some variance in outcomes
- ⚠️Ulm's attack has been more productive than their league position suggests
- ⚠️Market odds for Verl are very short, limiting value on away win
- ⚠️Corners and cards data are incomplete for both teams
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.