Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Stade Brestois 29
Le Havre
📍 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
🗓️ Sunday, 8 Mar 2026 at 16:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 65.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 10.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
76.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.75
EV: 71.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (36%) is significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (21%), creating a strong value edge. Brest are in good attacking form at home, and Le Havre's defence is vulnerable away, though both teams' season stats suggest a low-scoring tendency. Small stake advised due to low base rate.
1x2 — home@ 1.36
EV: 5.0%
Brest have strong home form (6W-3D-3L), better recent results, and Le Havre are poor away (1W-3D-7L, 5 scored/18 conceded). H2H also favors Brest at home. Odds are short but fair.
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 enter this fixture in strong form, unbeaten in five and with three clean sheets, while Le Havre have lost their last two and struggle badly on the road. Brest's attack has found consistency, and their home record is solid, whereas Le Havre have scored just five goals in eleven away matches. The head-to-head history also favors Brest at home. Expect Brest to control the match, keep it tight at the back, and have the best chances to win, with a low-to-moderate goal count likely, but some value in the over given the odds.
Key Factors
- →Brest: WWDWD form, three clean sheets in last five, unbeaten in five.
- →Le Havre: LLWWL form, three losses in last five, just one away win all season.
- →Brest home record: 6W-3D-3L, 18 scored, 13 conceded.
- →Le Havre away record: 1W-3D-7L, 5 scored, 18 conceded.
- →H2H: Brest have won last three at home vs Le Havre.
- →No injuries reported for either side.
- →Brest have failed to score in 0 of last 5; Le Havre in 3 of last 5.
- →Low BTTS and under 2.5 rates, but value on over 2.5 due to odds.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited shot and possession data for recent matches reduces confidence in attack/defence modeling.
- ⚠️Both teams' season stats suggest low-scoring games, but recent form hints at more goals for Brest.
- ⚠️Le Havre have shown occasional resilience, so upset/draw risk remains.
- ⚠️No injury data, but lineups not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.