Tamworth vs Carlisle Prediction
National League · England
Tamworth
Carlisle
📍 The Lamb Ground, Tamworth
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 17.0%
Draw: 25.0%
Away: 58.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
57.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4
EV: 88.0%
Both teams have high over 2.5 goal rates (Tamworth 55.56%, Carlisle 61.11%). Carlisle's attack is strong (2.2 avg last 5), Tamworth's defence is weak (1.64 conceded per game). Odds imply just 25% but model gives 47%.
btts — yes@ 3.9
EV: 68.0%
BTTS has landed in 3 of Tamworth's last 5 and 4 of Carlisle's last 5. Both teams' attack stats suggest value at this price.
Match Analysis
Carlisle travel to Tamworth as strong favourites, sitting 3rd in the table and boasting a potent attack. Tamworth, mid-table and on a two-game losing streak, have struggled defensively but have shown some attacking threat at home. Carlisle's away form is solid, and their recent matches have seen plenty of goals. The most likely scenario is Carlisle controlling the game, but Tamworth could get on the scoresheet, making over 2.5 goals and BTTS interesting value angles.
Key Factors
- →Carlisle are 3rd with 22 wins from 36, Tamworth are 10th with 12 wins.
- →Carlisle average 1.83 goals scored per game, Tamworth concede 1.64 per game.
- →Tamworth's home record is mixed (7W, 5D, 6L), Carlisle's away record is strong (10W, 2D, 5L).
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 goal percentages.
- →Carlisle have scored in all of their last 5, Tamworth failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data available for recent matches, reducing model precision.
- ⚠️Only one recent H2H (Carlisle 2-1 Tamworth), so limited historical matchup data.
- ⚠️Non-league data can be volatile and less predictable than top divisions.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest low-scoring, but both teams' stats point to goals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.