Torquay vs Farnborough Prediction
National League - South · England
Torquay
Farnborough
📍 Plainmoor, Torquay
🗓️ Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 58.0%
Draw: 26.0%
Away: 16.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
btts — yes@ 3.3
EV: 52.0%
Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5, and Farnborough average 1.8 goals scored but 3 conceded per game recently. Torquay's defense has been poor (2.8 conceded avg), while both sides have high BTTS counts in recent matches. The odds offer significant value versus model probability.
1x2 — draw@ 4.8
EV: 25.0%
Torquay are heavy favorites but are in poor form (LLLDL), and Farnborough have drawn 2 of their last 5. The model gives a higher draw probability than the market, creating a small value edge.
Match Analysis
Torquay, despite a strong season and excellent home record, are in a slump with three straight losses and defensive frailties exposed (2.8 goals conceded per last 5). Farnborough, fighting relegation, have a leaky defense but have shown resilience with two draws and a win in their last five. Both teams' recent matches are high-scoring and feature frequent BTTS outcomes. Torquay's home strength and superior league position make them favorites, but current form and Farnborough's attacking output suggest a competitive, open game.
Key Factors
- →Torquay's home record: 10W-3D-3L, 38:21 GF:GA
- →Farnborough's away record: 2W-6D-9L, 26:43 GF:GA
- →Torquay's last 5: LLLDL, 0.8 scored, 2.8 conceded per game
- →Farnborough's last 5: DWLLD, 1.8 scored, 3 conceded per game
- →No clean sheets for either side in last 5 matches
- →Head-to-head: Torquay 3 wins in last 5, including 3-1 away this season
- →Both teams high over 2.5 goal % (Torquay 67.7%, Farnborough 60.6%)
- →No significant injuries reported
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Torquay's recent form is poor despite strong season stats
- ⚠️Recent stats lack shots, possession, and set piece data
- ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable defensively
- ⚠️Market odds suggest Torquay are overwhelming favorites, but model indicates more risk
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.