Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse
Lorient
📍 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Mar 2026 at 16:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 36.0%
Draw: 37.0%
Away: 27.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.2
EV: 18.4%
Both teams are closely matched in league position and season performance. H2H history shows a high draw rate (5/10), and both sides have drawn several recent games. Model probability for draw is higher than implied by odds.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 5.4
EV: 105.2%
Although under is favored, the price for over 2.5 is very high relative to model probability. Both teams have shown some attacking intent and defensive vulnerability, and Lorient have had several high-scoring away games.
Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lorient meet in a mid-table Ligue 1 clash where both sides have shown patchy form but remain difficult to beat. Toulouse are inconsistent at home, while Lorient are poor away but come in on a five-match unbeaten run. Both teams average around 1.4 goals scored per game this season and have similar defensive records. The head-to-head history is balanced, with a high frequency of draws and low-scoring matches. Expect a tight, tactical contest with few clear chances and a strong possibility of a draw.
Key Factors
- →Both teams average 1.42 goals scored per game this season.
- →Lorient have only 2 away wins in 13, Toulouse have 4 home wins in 13.
- →Toulouse's last 5 form is poor (WLLDL), Lorient's is solid (WDDDW).
- →H2H: 5 draws in last 10, most recent meeting finished 1-1.
- →Lorient have scored in all of their last 5 matches; Toulouse failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Lack of detailed shot/possession data for some recent Toulouse matches reduces model precision.
- ⚠️Both teams' attacking and defensive metrics are close to league average, increasing draw likelihood but reducing confidence in any side.
- ⚠️Low confidence in high cards/corners predictions due to incomplete stats.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.