Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse
Marseille
📍 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
🗓️ Saturday, 7 Mar 2026 at 20:05
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 16.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 57.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
62.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.8
EV: 55.8%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (41%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (26%), and Marseille's matches have a high over 2.5 rate (66.67%).
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 52.0%
Value on BTTS yes given Marseille's attack and Toulouse's ability to score at home, with model probability (38%) well above implied (25%).
Match Analysis
Marseille travel to Toulouse as strong favorites, boasting a much superior attack and a dominant head-to-head record. While Toulouse have struggled for form and have not beaten Marseille in their last 10 meetings, they tend to score at home and could trouble a Marseille defense that concedes over a goal per game. Expect Marseille to control the game, but Toulouse's resilience at home could see them get on the scoresheet. The match is likely to be competitive, with Marseille's attacking quality likely to make the difference.
Key Factors
- →Marseille have won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings, Toulouse 0.
- →Marseille's away attack averages 1.58 goals per game, Toulouse concede 1.33 at home.
- →Toulouse have a middling home record (4W, 5D, 3L) but usually score.
- →Marseille's away record is inconsistent (5W, 1D, 6L) but they have the league's second-best attack.
- →No significant injuries for either side.
- →Marseille's matches see a high over 2.5 goals rate (66.67%).
- →Toulouse have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No recent last 5 match data for Toulouse; reduces confidence in short-term trends.
- ⚠️Toulouse's derived last 5 stats are missing; season averages used instead.
- ⚠️Possible underestimation of Toulouse's home resilience due to missing recent data.
- ⚠️Marseille's away form is volatile: strong attack but leaky defense.
- ⚠️Model probabilities are based on available season and derived stats, not full recent form for Toulouse.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.