Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction
Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse
Paris FC
📍 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 18:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 48.0%
Draw: 35.0%
Away: 17.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
82.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.3
EV: 15.5%
Both teams are low-scoring and defensively solid in recent games, with Toulouse failing to score in 2 of last 5 and Paris FC in 4 of last 5. Both have a high recent draw rate and the model probability for a draw (0.35) is above the implied probability from odds (0.30), giving a positive value edge.
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.11
EV: -6.0%
Both teams have averaged under 1 goal scored per game in their last 5, and failed to score in most recent matches. 82% model probability for under 2.5 goals, but the odds are short, so only moderate value.
Match Analysis
This Ligue 1 clash sees mid-table Toulouse host struggling Paris FC in what projects as a low-scoring, cagey affair. Both sides have found goals hard to come by recently, with Toulouse netting just 4 in their last 5 league games and Paris FC only 2. Defensively, Toulouse have been solid at home, while Paris FC's away form is poor and they have conceded heavily. The head-to-head history is dominated by Toulouse, including a recent 3-0 away win, but both teams' lack of attacking spark points to a tight contest. Expect a tactical battle with few clear chances.
Key Factors
- →Toulouse have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- →Paris FC have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- →Both teams average less than 1 goal scored per game in their last 5.
- →Toulouse's home record (4W 4D 3L) is notably better than Paris FC's away record (3W 3D 5L).
- →Recent H2H: Toulouse won 3-0 away in the reverse fixture.
- →Both teams are in poor form: Toulouse (LLWDW), Paris FC (LDLDD).
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or corners data for Toulouse's last 5 games; reduces confidence in attack/defence estimates.
- ⚠️Recent lineups are incomplete for both teams, so injury/squad rotation impact is uncertain.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds on main markets are very short, limiting value.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games can be decided by single moments or set pieces, increasing variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.