Truro City vs Hartlepool Prediction
National League · England
Truro City
Hartlepool
📍 Truro Sports Hub,
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Mar 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 28.0%
Away: 59.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
77.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.6
EV: 28.8%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.28) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.217), giving a modest value edge. Truro's defense is weak, Hartlepool have some attacking threat, and while both teams trend under, the price is generous for a small stake.
Match Analysis
Hartlepool travel to bottom-placed Truro City as clear favorites. Truro are in poor form, winless in five and with the league's worst defensive record. Hartlepool have been inconsistent but show a much higher level, especially away from home. Both teams have struggled for clean sheets recently, but Truro's attack is blunt and Hartlepool's defense is stronger than their recent results suggest. Expect a controlled away performance, with Hartlepool likely to keep Truro at bay and take their chances.
Key Factors
- →Truro City have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and are bottom of the table.
- →Hartlepool are 9th, with a positive away record (6W, 6D, 5L).
- →Truro have conceded 64 goals in 36 games (1.78 per game), worst in the league.
- →Hartlepool have scored 1.17 goals per game and conceded 1.11 per game this season.
- →Truro's home record is poor (5W, 3D, 9L), with only 23 goals scored in 17 home games.
- →Recent H2H: Hartlepool beat Truro 3-1 earlier this season.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data for recent matches; reduces accuracy on corners/cards/attacking threat.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results.
- ⚠️Small sample size for H2H (only 1 match).
- ⚠️Model probabilities for goal markets are based on season and recent averages, not granular xG.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.