TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK Prediction
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK
📍 Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
🗓️ Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 at 16:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 48.0%
Draw: 31.0%
Away: 21.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
51.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
btts — yes@ 4.33
EV: 112.0%
Model probability for BTTS 'yes' is 49% versus odds-implied probability of 23%, presenting a substantial value edge. Both teams have shown BTTS in 2/5 (Hartberg) and 4/5 (Grazer AK) recent matches, and Grazer AK's defense is weak away.
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Grazer AK in a clash where the home side are favored based on superior league position, recent form, and defensive solidity. Hartberg have been hard to beat at home, while Grazer AK struggle on the road, conceding nearly 2 goals per away game. Recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring and tight, but both teams' recent attacking output and defensive frailties suggest more goal potential this time. Hartberg's home advantage and greater consistency should see them edge a competitive match, but Grazer AK's improved attacking numbers hint at a close contest.
Key Factors
- →Hartberg are unbeaten in their last 5 (DDWWW) including league and friendlies.
- →Grazer AK have just 1 away win all season and concede 1.89 goals per away game.
- →Hartberg's home record is balanced (3W-3D-3L) but they have a positive recent goal difference.
- →Grazer AK have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 and have the lowest away clean sheet % in the league.
- →H2H meetings are often close: 4 of last 6 were draws, 2 ended 0-0.
- →Both teams have shown BTTS in recent matches: Hartberg 2/5, Grazer AK 4/5.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent H2H matches have been low-scoring and draw-prone, which could suppress goal totals.
- ⚠️Some last 5 match stats include friendlies with less competitive intensity.
- ⚠️Limited shots/corners data for away team in recent matches reduces set piece confidence.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive numbers are volatile, especially Grazer AK's away record.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.