Udinese vs Fiorentina Prediction
Serie A · Italy
Udinese
Fiorentina
📍 Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine
🗓️ Monday, 2 Mar 2026 at 19:45
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 28.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 34.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4.75
EV: 52.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (32%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (21%), creating a strong value edge despite the match's generally low-scoring profile.
btts — yes@ 4
EV: 76.0%
Both teams have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5, and the model probability (44%) is well above the implied probability (25%), offering clear value.
1x2 — draw@ 3.2
EV: 18.0%
Both teams have similar defensive records, recent H2H includes several draws, and the model sees the draw as the likeliest single outcome.
Match Analysis
This is a mid-table clash between two teams with similar defensive frailties and inconsistent form. Udinese have lost three in a row but have been competitive at home, while Fiorentina are on a three-game winning streak but have struggled away all season. The match is likely to be cagey, with both sides aware of the need to avoid defeat. Recent H2H suggests a slight edge to Fiorentina, but the draw is a strong possibility given both teams' season records and goal patterns.
Key Factors
- →Udinese on a three-match losing streak, but recent home wins over Roma and Verona.
- →Fiorentina have won three in a row (all comps), but only two away wins in Serie A this season.
- →Both teams average 1.08–1.15 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; neither defense is reliable.
- →Head-to-head is close (5 Fiorentina wins, 4 Udinese wins, 1 draw in last 10), but recent matches have seen goals for both sides.
- →No significant injuries for either team.
- →Bookmaker odds heavily favor Fiorentina, but model sees a much closer contest.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited shots and possession data for Fiorentina's last 5 matches reduces confidence in attack/defense estimates.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and unpredictable, increasing variance.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest a low-scoring game, but model sees more goal potential based on recent trends.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.