Valencia vs Alaves Prediction
La Liga · Spain
Valencia
Alaves
📍 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
🗓️ Sunday, 8 Mar 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 47.0%
Draw: 33.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
78.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
correct_score — 1-0
Both teams have struggled offensively, with Valencia averaging just over 1 goal per game and Alaves below 1, and both are among the lowest over 2.5% teams in La Liga. Valencia's home advantage and slightly better recent form make a 1-0 result plausible.
under 2.5 goals — under@ 1.09
EV: -7.0%
Both teams have a strong tendency for low-scoring matches (Valencia and Alaves both 42% over 2.5, both under 1.1 goals scored per game last 5), and recent H2H are low scoring.
btts — no@ 1.15
EV: -9.0%
Valencia have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, Alaves have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and have 0 clean sheets. H2H also trends low for both to score.
Match Analysis
This is a low-stakes mid-table clash between two sides struggling for goals and consistency. Valencia have a slight edge at home, coming off a win and showing better defensive solidity. Alaves travel poorly, with only 7 goals scored in 13 away games and no clean sheets in their last five. Expect a tight, cagey match with few chances and a high likelihood of under 2.5 goals. Recent H2H also suggests a draw or narrow home win is most likely.
Key Factors
- →Valencia's home record (5W 5D 3L) is much stronger than Alaves' away (2W 2D 9L, 7:19 GF:GA).
- →Both teams average just 1 goal scored per game in their last 5.
- →Alaves have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5, and failed to score in 2 of those.
- →Valencia have 2 clean sheets in last 5 and only failed to score in 1.
- →H2H is low scoring: last 3 meetings all under 2.5 goals.
- →Both teams have season over 2.5% at just 42%, below league average.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Limited data for shots, corners, and fouls for Alaves in last 5 makes set piece/corner predictions less reliable.
- ⚠️API model strongly favors Alaves/draw, but underlying stats and home/away splits suggest Valencia edge.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent; motivation may be variable given mid-table status.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Valencia are stronger favorites than model implies, so value is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.