Valladolid vs Burgos Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Valladolid
Burgos
📍 Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid
🗓️ Saturday, 28 Mar 2026 at 15:15
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 33.0%
Draw: 36.0%
Away: 31.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.15
EV: 13.5%
Both teams have similar attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Recent form and H2H suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. The model sees a higher draw probability than the market.
btts — yes@ 5
EV: 105.0%
Model probability (0.41) is much higher than the implied odds (0.20). While Burgos have had many clean sheets recently, Valladolid's matches tend to see both teams scoring, making this a value longshot.
Match Analysis
Valladolid, struggling near the relegation zone, host a Burgos side pushing for promotion playoff spots. Valladolid's recent form is erratic but they have shown some attacking improvement, while Burgos are defensively solid but not prolific away from home. Both teams average just over a goal per game, and recent head-to-heads have been tight, often low-scoring. Expect a cagey contest with limited chances, where a draw is a likely outcome.
Key Factors
- →Burgos have conceded only 0.2 goals per game in their last 5, with 4 clean sheets.
- →Valladolid have scored in all of their last 5 matches, averaging 2 goals per game.
- →Both teams average 1.16 goals per game over the season.
- →Valladolid's home record is poor (5W 4D 6L), while Burgos are average away (6W 3D 6L).
- →H2H: 3 draws in last 5, most recent meeting finished 1-0 to Valladolid.
- →Burgos have a much better goal difference (+10) and are 6th in the table, Valladolid are 18th (-9 GD).
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing for several recent games.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available for this fixture; late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to the low-scoring nature and variance in Segunda División.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.