Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz Prediction
Bundesliga · Austria
Wolfsberger AC
Sturm Graz
📍 Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberg
🗓️ Sunday, 1 Mar 2026 at 16:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 25.0%
Draw: 38.0%
Away: 37.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
55.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(2)
1x2 — draw@ 3.25
EV: 8.5%
Both teams have shown inconsistency in attack, and recent H2H and form trends suggest a close, low-scoring match. The model sees a higher draw probability than the odds imply.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 4
EV: 36.0%
While both teams have trended under recently, the season over 2.5 rates (WAC 65%, Sturm 50%) are above market implied probability, offering value at a big price.
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host Sturm Graz in a clash where both sides have struggled for attacking fluency in recent weeks. Wolfsberger are on a two-game losing streak and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, while Sturm Graz have been more solid defensively but are averaging just 0.6 goals scored per game over their last five. Both teams' recent matches have trended under 2.5 goals, and H2H history also points to tight encounters. With Sturm Graz strong away from home and Wolfsberger inconsistent at home, a low-scoring draw is a likely outcome.
Key Factors
- →Wolfsberger AC: 2 losses and 1 draw in last 3, conceding 6 goals.
- →Sturm Graz: 3 clean sheets in last 5, but only 3 goals scored in that stretch.
- →Wolfsberger home record: W4 D2 L4 (14:12), Sturm away: W7 L3 (19:10).
- →Last 10 H2H: 3 draws, 4 home wins, 3 away wins. Recent meetings often low scoring.
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
- →Both teams have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- →Season over 2.5 goal %: Wolfsberger 65%, Sturm Graz 50%.
- →Discipline: Both teams average 1 yellow card per game in last 5.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Recent form data for shots, possession, and set pieces is incomplete for several matches.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in attacking output; possible for a higher or lower scoring game than model projects.
- ⚠️Market odds may shift closer to kickoff, affecting value assessment.
- ⚠️No lineup data available for this fixture at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.