Zaragoza vs Almeria Prediction
Segunda División · Spain
Zaragoza
Almeria
📍 Ibercaja Estadio, Zaragoza
🗓️ Saturday, 14 Mar 2026 at 17:30
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 17.0%
Draw: 27.0%
Away: 56.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(1)
over_under_2_5 — over@ 6.25
EV: 144.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.43) is much higher than the implied probability from the odds (0.16). Almeria's matches see high goal averages (1.89 scored, 1.43 conceded per game; 71% over 2.5 rate), and Zaragoza's defense is vulnerable. H2H history also shows several high-scoring games.
Match Analysis
Almeria travel to Zaragoza in a clash of teams at opposite ends of the Segunda División table. Zaragoza are struggling in 21st with just 2 home wins all season, poor recent form, and the league's second-worst defense. Almeria, in contrast, are 3rd, unbeaten in their last five, and have the division's most prolific attack. Recent H2H history is heavily in Almeria's favor, and their games are consistently high-scoring. Zaragoza's only hope may be to keep it tight, but their defensive record suggests they will struggle to contain Almeria.
Key Factors
- →Almeria average 2.4 goals scored in their last 5 matches, Zaragoza just 0.6.
- →Zaragoza have won only 2 of 14 home games, conceding 21 goals.
- →Almeria have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5, but have scored in every match.
- →Almeria's over 2.5 goals rate is 71%, Zaragoza's is 34%.
- →H2H: Almeria have won 7 of last 10 meetings, often with 3+ goals.
- →No injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Zaragoza's attack is weak, so if Almeria have an off day, goals could be lower.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, xG) for Zaragoza last 5 games reduces model confidence.
- ⚠️Segunda División can be unpredictable and low-scoring at times.
- ⚠️Almeria's away defense is not watertight (18 conceded in 14 away), but Zaragoza's home scoring is very poor.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.