Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Aberdeen
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
ST Mirren
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.2(+3% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10St Mirren Secure Clinical 2-0 Win at Pittodrie to Dent Aberdeen Hopes
St Mirren delivered a composed and efficient performance to claim a 2-0 victory over Aberdeen at Pittodrie Stadium, with goals in each half sealing the points. Despite Aberdeen enjoying the lion’s share of possession (58%) and forcing six corners, they struggled to break down a disciplined St Mirren defence and mustered just one shot on target all evening. The visitors struck first through K. Phillips in the 42nd minute, capitalizing on a rare spell of pressure. Aberdeen pressed for an equalizer after the break but were repeatedly frustrated by St Mirren’s organization and the safe hands of R. Sinclair. The contest was settled in the 80th minute when M. Mandron doubled the lead, ensuring the Buddies left Aberdeen with a deserved three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
42' — Goal
K. Phillips scores to put St Mirren ahead against the run of play.
80' — Goal
M. Mandron doubles St Mirren’s lead, finishing off a swift counter.
53' — Yellow Card
A. Campbell (St Mirren) booked for a tactical foul breaking up play.
65' — Yellow Card
L. Morrison (Aberdeen) shown yellow for dissent.
Aberdeen
Aberdeen controlled much of the ball and territory, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Despite registering 58% possession and winning six corners, they could only test the goalkeeper once. The Dons' front line, including K. Nisbet and T. Olusanya, found little space against a resolute St Mirren back three. Defensively, Aberdeen were undone by lapses at crucial moments, conceding just before half-time and again late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Mirren
St Mirren executed their game plan to perfection, sitting deep, absorbing pressure, and striking decisively on the break. With just 42% possession, they were clinical when opportunities arose, registering five shots on target from nine attempts. The back three marshaled by A. Gogic and M. Fraser was well-organized, while R. Sinclair made the one save required of him. Goals from K. Phillips and M. Mandron highlighted their efficiency and composure in front of goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Aberdeen lined up in a 3-4-1-2, seeking to control midfield and overload wide areas through wing-backs N. Devlin and M. Frame. While this provided territorial dominance, St Mirren’s compact 3-1-4-2 shape absorbed pressure and limited space between the lines. St Mirren’s midfield, anchored by M. O'Hara, provided a shield for the back three and enabled quick transitions when Aberdeen overcommitted. The visitors’ willingness to cede possession and focus on direct attacks paid dividends, as both goals came from swift, incisive moves exploiting Aberdeen’s defensive gaps. Substitutions from both sides sought to influence the tempo, but St Mirren’s discipline and Aberdeen’s lack of creativity meant the tactical battle was won by the visitors. Set pieces offered Aberdeen some hope, but they failed to capitalize on their six corners.
Turning Point
K. Phillips’ opener in the 42nd minute shifted the momentum, forcing Aberdeen to chase the game and leaving them vulnerable to St Mirren’s counter-attacks.
Man of the Match
K. Phillips
Scored the crucial opening goal and was a constant threat on the break, setting the tone for St Mirren’s victory.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.50
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
23%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.2
Both teams have struggled for goals recently, especially St Mirren (0.4 avg goals scored last 5, failed to score in 4/5), and Aberdeen have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5. H2H also supports low BTTS rates.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.2
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (33% season), and recent matches plus H2H show a strong trend to low-scoring games.
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction
Aberdeen come into this match in solid form, with three wins and a draw in their last four, and a strong defensive record lately. St Mirren, in contrast, are on a four-game losing streak and have failed to score in four of their last five. Given the home side's defensive solidity and the visitors' attacking struggles, this projects as a low-scoring encounter with Aberdeen slight favourites, but a draw is also a significant risk.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams under 1.5 goals scored per game on average
Defence
- →Aberdeen: 3 wins, 1 draw in last 4; 3 clean sheets in last 5
Injuries & Team News
- →No injuries reported for either team
Match Context
- →St Mirren: 4 straight losses, failed to score in 4 of last 5
- →Aberdeen home record: 7W 5D 6L, 28:21 GF:GA
- →St Mirren away record: 2W 4D 12L, 17:33 GF:GA
- →Head-to-head: 6/10 last meetings under 2.5 goals
🚩 Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Aberdeen and 5.2 for ST Mirren, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Aberdeen and ST Mirren Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aberdeen are finishing the season strongly, with three wins and a draw in their last four matches, conceding just two goals in that span. St Mirren, meanwhile, are in a slump, losing four consecutive games and scoring only once in their last five, highlighting their current struggles in attack.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
The recent head-to-head record favours St Mirren, who have won six of the last ten meetings, including a 2-0 win at home last month. However, matches between these sides are often low-scoring, with four of the last six meetings producing under 2.5 goals.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Aberdeen wins
1
Draws
7
ST Mirren wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
The model sees slight value in 'BTTS No' and 'Under 2.5 goals', both at 1.2 odds, with model probabilities higher than bookmaker implied. While the edge is modest, the strong defensive trend for Aberdeen and St Mirren's attacking woes support these selections. No significant value is found on the 1x2 market, as odds are closely aligned with model estimates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
- ⚠️Aberdeen's attack is not prolific, so a 0-0 or 1-1 cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠️St Mirren's away record is poor, but H2H shows they can occasionally surprise.
- ⚠️Odds on low goal markets are short, limiting value.
- ⚠️Some missing data for shots/corners in recent matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Aberdeen vs ST Mirren: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.