Bet of the Day

Both sides have shown a tendency to draw in recent matches (Bregenz with 3 in their last 5, Altach with 1), and the model's draw probability (0.25) matches the implied odds, making this a fair value play in a fixture where the rates suggest a close contest.

Both sides average over two goals scored per game this season (Mlada Boleslav 2.67, Jihlava 2.13), with 91.7% and 86.7% of their matches respectively going over 2.5 goals. The model's 76% probability outpaces the market's implied 72%.

Jihlava have scored in each of their last five, and both teams have seen BTTS in 3 (Mlada) and 4 (Jihlava) of their last five matches. Defensive numbers suggest both can be breached.

This scoreline aligns with both teams' season scoring rates (Vasteras 1.5 for, 1.1 against; Brommapojkarna 0.9 for, 1.6 against) and recent H2H trends, with three of the last six meetings finishing 2-1 or 1-2.

Both sides have hit over 2.5 in 50% of their season matches, and Brommapojkarna's last five have averaged 3.4 total goals per game.

Ilves arrive on a five-match unbeaten run (WDWWW), scoring 12 goals and conceding just 2 in their last five, while Turku PS are winless in five (LLLLD) and have failed to score in four of those. Ilves have also won all ten previous head-to-heads, including a 3-0 away victory in September.

Turku PS have failed to score in four of their last five, averaging just 0.2 goals per game in that stretch, while Ilves have kept three clean sheets in five and conceded only 0.4 per match.

Despite Ilves' strong attack, Turku PS's inability to contribute to the scoreline (one goal in five games) and Ilves' defensive solidity point towards a controlled away win with limited goals. Four of Turku PS's last five have finished under 2.5 goals.

Bochum's three-match winning streak contrasts with Verl's four straight defeats, but Bochum have conceded in three of their last five and Verl have managed to score in four of their last five despite poor results. The draw price is inflated relative to the model's 22% probability, offering value if Bochum’s recent momentum softens in a friendly context.

Floridsdorfer AC have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average just 0.6 goals per game over that stretch, while Hartberg have kept three clean sheets in their last five and have not failed to score once in that run. The form divergence is stark, and the price on 'no' for BTTS is considerably above model probability.

Hartberg arrive on a three-match winning streak, outscoring opponents 8-0 in their last two, while Floridsdorfer AC have lost four of five and have not won away since early July. Given the momentum and attacking output, Hartberg are justifiably strong favourites.

Both sides average just over a goal per game in recent matches, and neither has shown consistent attacking output or defensive solidity; the 1-1 is the statistical mode given the low over 2.5 rate (33% for Kapfenberg, 0% for Uljanik in their single away game) and a near-even BTTS split.

Kapfenberg’s season over 2.5 rate sits at 33%, and Uljanik’s away and recent matches have been low scoring, with just one of their last five seeing more than two goals; the model assigns a 61% probability to under 2.5.

The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, compared to the market-implied 22%, creating an 18% edge. Dynamo Dresden's inconsistent results (WLWLW) and Dukla Praha's resilience (WWDLW), coupled with the friendly setting, make a stalemate more plausible than the odds suggest.

Both teams have high over 2.5 rates this season (Raków 61.5%, Lechia 75%), and Raków's last five matches average 4.2 total goals. The model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5, slightly above the implied probability from the odds.

Raków are unbeaten at home this season (6W, 3D, 0L) and have dominated the H2H (8 wins in last 10), but the edge over the market is marginal.

Rijeka's 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded per game over the season, coupled with Orijent's winless away record and 1.75 goals conceded per away game, tip the balance towards the home side.

Both sides average over 1.3 goals scored per game and Rijeka's last 5 have all seen both teams score, supporting a moderate goal environment.

Rijeka have seen both teams score in all of their last 5 matches, while Orijent have failed to score in only 2 of their last 5, suggesting BTTS is a live angle.

Austria Vienna (Am) have taken 11 points from their last five matches (DWWDW), conceding just four goals in that stretch and maintaining a 100% home record this season (6W, 1D, 0L, 26:8 GF:GA). Fach-Donaufeld, by contrast, have lost three of their last five and shipped 13 goals in that span, making the home side's momentum and defensive solidity the decisive factors.

Both teams average 1.4 goals scored per game over their last five, but Fach-Donaufeld's defensive frailty (2.6 conceded per game in the same period, 83% season over 2.5) points to a strong likelihood of multiple goals.

Both teams average over 2.5 goals per game this season (Rapid Wien II: 75% over 2.5, Donau: 85.7%), and four of their last five matches each have seen BTTS. The model assigns a 72% probability to over 2.5 goals, well above the 64% implied by the odds.

Donau's attack is averaging 3.2 goals per game across their last five, and Rapid Wien II have conceded in four straight. The model gives Donau a 23% win chance versus 20% implied by the price, creating a modest value edge for a small stake.

Burgos have taken 10 points from their last 5 league matches (form: DWWWL), scoring 9 and conceding 6, while Leganes have lost 4 of their last 5 (form: LDLLL) and conceded 13 in that span. Burgos’ momentum and Leganes’ defensive frailty tilt the probabilities strongly towards the away side.

Leganes average 4.4 yellows per game over their last 5, with Burgos at 2.6, and both sides combine for 7 cards per match recently. With Leganes desperate for points and both teams physical, the model projects a high booking count.

Burgos have scored 5 first-half goals in their last 5 matches and Leganes have conceded early in several games, suggesting a strong chance of early action.

The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, well above the 29.4% implied by odds of 3.4. Both teams average low scoring rates recently (Colo Colo 2.8 scored but 1.6 conceded per last 5, Racing just 0.6 scored), and the H2H includes a recent 1-1, supporting a balanced outcome.

Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56% by the model, with both sides showing a combined 44% over 2.5 rate in recent matches and Racing failing to score in three of their last five. The H2H also features just one high-scoring game in three meetings.

PK-35 have posted a stronger defensive record across the season (1.14 goals conceded per game) and have lost just once in their last three, while Inter Turku II's away season record stands at zero wins with 2.33 goals conceded per game.

Both teams show a season over 2.5 goal rate above 40% (PK-35: 42.86%, Inter Turku II: 66.67%), and Inter Turku II average 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last five, pointing to an open contest.

Inter Turku II have scored in all of their last five matches, while PK-35 have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five, making both teams to score a plausible outcome.

Legia Warszawa have lost just once in 15 matches this season and enter with a home form of 8 wins from 12, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have lost four straight and failed to score in three of their last five. The gulf in current momentum is stark.

Legia's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of games this season, and both previous H2H meetings finished 3-2 and 2-1. Pogoń's defence has conceded 28 in 13 league games, suggesting another open contest.

Despite Pogoń's struggles, Legia have kept only two clean sheets in their last five and both H2H meetings saw both teams score. Pogoń have managed to find the net in two of their last five, including away from home.

Both teams average over 1.8 goals scored and nearly 2 conceded per game this season, with over 2.5 goals landing in 64–67% of their matches; the model gives a 68% probability for over 2.5.

Each side has seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5, and neither keeps clean sheets regularly (CSKA 0%, Arsenal Tula 8.3% season clean sheet rate), supporting a 66% BTTS probability.

Obolon'-Brovar have a season scoring rate of 1.38 per game and have already beaten Nyva Vinnytsya 2-0 this season, while Nyva Vinnytsya concede 2.67 per game and have lost all three season matches.

Nyva Vinnytsya have failed to score in one of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet all season, while Obolon'-Brovar have conceded just 1.08 per game and kept Nyva Vinnytsya scoreless in their only H2H.

Obolon'-Brovar's season over 2.5 rate is only 38.46%, and their last five average just 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, suggesting a moderate goal environment.

Widzew Łódź average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, while Unia Skierniewice's away record is 2 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match; the most probable outcome is a narrow home win with both sides likely to score.

Both teams have high season-long scoring rates (Widzew Łódź 2.1, Unia Skierniewice 2.6 goals per game) and 60% of combined matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

Unia Skierniewice have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 and Widzew Łódź in 3 of their last 5; neither defence is dominant, with clean sheet rates at 40%.

Carl Zeiss Jena W have averaged 1.6 goals per game this season and face a Koln II W side with the league's worst defensive record (2.0 conceded per game, no away wins), making the home win the most probable outcome.

Koln II W have failed to score in three of their last five away games and average just 0.5 goals per game across the season, while Jena W have kept three clean sheets at home.

Jena W have seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of their league matches, and Koln II W's defence concedes at a rate that supports a higher goal expectation.

Both teams average 2+ goals scored per game this season, and Tasmania Berlin's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of fixtures, indicating a strong likelihood of a high-scoring friendly.

BFC Dynamo have won three of the last four H2H meetings and arrive on a five-match unbeaten run, while Tasmania Berlin have conceded 9 goals in their last 3 outings.

Both sides have shown a tendency towards high-scoring matches recently: Otrant-Olympic's season over 2.5 rate sits at 66.7%, and Novi Pazar's last five average 2.6 total goals per game. Defensive frailties on both sides increase the likelihood of at least three goals.

Otrant-Olympic have kept zero clean sheets in six season matches and have seen BTTS in four of their last five, while Novi Pazar have failed to score just once in their last five. Both attacks are outperforming their defences.

The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, above the 29.4% implied by the 3.4 odds, with both sides showing strong home/away splits but little separation in underlying rates. Exeter have drawn three of seven at home and Cheltenham have two away draws, with both teams averaging below league scoring rates in these splits.

Castellón’s away record (5 wins from 7, 11 scored, 4 conceded) and season-long defensive rate (0.42 goals conceded per game) give them a clear statistical edge over a Valladolid side with no draws at home and a 1.67/1.58 goals for/against profile.

Despite Valladolid’s recent high-scoring home games, Castellón’s matches have gone under 2.5 goals 58% of the time this season, and their defensive solidity (7 clean sheets in 12) suppresses the overall goal environment.

Bochum W's perfect home record (4W, 1D, 0L, 17 scored, 0 conceded) contrasts sharply with Hoffenheim II W's winless away form (0W, 0D, 5L, 5 scored, 14 conceded), supporting a strong home probability.

Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 90% of their league matches this season, and their combined season average is 4.0 goals per game.

Despite Bochum W's defensive record at home, Hoffenheim II W have scored in each of their last five, and BTTS has landed in 4 of their last 5 matches.

Viktoria Berlin W arrive on a five-match winning streak, averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded in that spell, while Eintracht Frankfurt II W have lost three of their last five and managed only 0.8 goals per game. The visitors' momentum and defensive solidity make them clear favourites.

Frankfurt II W have failed to score in two of their last five, and Viktoria Berlin W have kept four clean sheets in that same period. The away side's recent defensive record, conceding just once in five, points to a high probability of at least one team blanking.

Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches. Viktoria Berlin W's last five have averaged just 1.8 total goals per game, and Frankfurt II W's attack is among the league's least productive.

Both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv have scored in every one of their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 3 of Zorya's and all 5 of Kharkiv's recent games, and neither side showing a reliable clean sheet record.

Zorya's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 76% of their season games, while Kharkiv are on a four-match winning streak but have conceded in every one of their last five, with both teams averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game recently.

Momentum is strong for both sides—Zorya with just one loss in five and Kharkiv on a four-game winning run—but defensive vulnerabilities and a history of close H2H matches (two draws in last five) point towards a high-scoring stalemate.

Ried's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 81.8% of league games this season, and both sides average nearly 2 goals scored per game; the underlying rates point to a higher goal environment than average.

Ried have a strong home scoring record (19 goals in 8 home games) and have lost only once at home this season, while First Vienna have conceded 10 in 7 away matches and lost heavily in their last two away fixtures against higher-tier sides.

Both sides have scored in all of Manchester City W's last five matches, and Chelsea W have failed to score just once all season, with both teams averaging over 2 goals per game in their last five.

Four of Chelsea W's last five matches and all of Manchester City W's last five have seen at least three goals, with both teams' attacks in top gear and defensive vulnerabilities evident on City's side.

Chelsea W are on a five-match winning streak, scoring 20 goals in that span, and have won seven of the last ten H2Hs, but City's attacking threat keeps outright confidence moderate.

The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, slightly above the 26% implied by odds of 3.83, creating a modest positive expectation. Both sides have shown goal output and defensive vulnerability, and with neither holding a clear edge in recent form, a high-scoring stalemate is plausible.

Chesterfield's attacking output (1.8 goals per game last 5, 1.71 season avg) and Bristol Rovers' defensive frailty (1.64 conceded per game, 2+ goals shipped in 4 of last 7) make the away price too big given the model's 43% win probability versus a 2.50 (40% implied) market.

Both sides are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Bristol Rovers 50%, Chesterfield 57%), and Chesterfield's matches average 2.71 goals; the model's 62% probability edges the 1.70 price.

Gillingham have averaged 1.71 goals per away game (12 in 7) and have lost only twice on the road, while Colchester have scored just 0.92 per game overall and are winless in their last five. The model prices the away win at 40% probability versus bookmaker odds implying 31%, producing a significant value edge.

Both teams have seen BTTS in 5 of Gillingham's last 5 league matches and 2 of Colchester's last 5, with Gillingham failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. The model projects a 59% chance of both teams scoring.

Gillingham's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 57% of league games this season and are averaging 2.64 total goals per match, while Colchester's defensive frailty (1.46 conceded per game) supports a higher goal expectancy.

The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, while the market implies just 29%. Both teams have drawn a high proportion of their matches (Crewe 7/14, Newport 6/14), and Crewe are unbeaten at home but with four draws in seven.

Crewe's over 2.5 goals rate is just 28.6%, and Newport's away matches have averaged only 2.43 goals per game. Model probability for under 2.5 is 56%, above the implied 51%.

The model gives a 34% probability to the draw, above the 30.3% implied by 3.3 odds. Both sides are among the league's draw leaders (Accrington 7/14, Port Vale 3/12), and neither attack consistently outscores the other's defence.

Port Vale home matches see just 0.83 goals for and 0.5 against per game, and their season over 2.5 rate is only 16.7%. Accrington's away games average 1.43 goals for and 1.29 against, but recent defensive improvement and Vale's blunt attack keep the median total low.

The model assigns a 28% probability to the draw, slightly above the 26.7% implied by odds of 3.75. Both teams have drawn over 35% of their combined league matches (8/28), and York are winless in seven away games, making a stalemate a plausible outcome.

The model gives a 33% draw probability (odds implied 28.6%), with both teams averaging over 1.25 goals conceded per game and a high rate of stalemates in Rotherham's home matches (5 draws in 7).

Salford City have conceded just one goal in their last three home matches, while Northampton have failed to score in two of their last five and average only 1.0 goals per game over that stretch. The visitors have managed just nine goals in 13 league matches, and BTTS has landed in only one of their last five.

Salford City are on a five-match winning streak, scoring 12 and conceding just 5 in that span, while Northampton sit 21st and have just one away win all season. The home side's momentum and attacking output (2.4 goals per game in last five) make them strong favourites.

The model assigns a 32% probability to the draw, slightly above the 30% implied by the 3.3 odds, with neither side consistently outclassing the other and both defences showing vulnerabilities. Recent H2H meetings include a 2-2 draw, and both teams have drawn at least once in their last five.

Model probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (vs 50% implied), supported by Shrewsbury’s high-scoring recent games (4/5 over 2.5) and both teams averaging over 1 goal conceded per game.

The most probable scoreline given Grimsby's 1.57 goals per away game and Swindon's 1.00 home goals conceded, combined with both teams' high over 2.5 goal rates (Swindon 50%, Grimsby 57%).

Both sides average above 1.2 goals scored per game in their respective home/away splits, and both have over 50% of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

Grimsby are unbeaten in 5 of 7 away games (1W 4D 2L) and Swindon have just 1 home defeat; the model gives a 72% probability to Grimsby avoiding defeat.

Both sides have scored in all of Barnet's last five league matches and in four of Walsall's last five, with Barnet yet to keep a clean sheet this season (0% clean sheet rate) and Walsall averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five.

Barnet's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of 13 league games (76.9%), and Walsall's attack has produced at least two goals in four of their last five, suggesting a high-goal environment.

Blackpool's attack is producing 1.4 goals and 15 shots per game over their last five, while AFC Wimbledon have conceded 13 goals in their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in that span. The model gives Blackpool a 43% win chance (implied odds 2.33), slightly higher than the market's 2.40 price (implied 41.7%), offering a small but real value edge.

Both sides are averaging over 6 corners per game in their last five (AFC Wimbledon 6.0, Blackpool 7.2), and their combined average is 13.2, making the model's total corners estimate of 14 notably high for this division. If odds are available above 1.60, this market would represent value.

Notts County arrive with clear upward momentum, averaging 2 goals per game and just 0.8 conceded over their last five, while Bromley have lost four of five and conceded 13 in that stretch. The visitors’ improved shot volume (14.6 per game) and Bromley’s defensive frailty at Hayes Lane (14 conceded in 6 home matches) tilt the value towards the away win.

Bromley’s matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of league games and they are conceding an average of 2.6 per game in their last five; Notts County’s attack is trending up, suggesting a strong possibility of three or more goals.

Leyton Orient have conceded just 4 goals in 6 away matches (0.67 per game) and their overall defensive rate (1.08 goals against per game) is among the best in the bottom half, while Doncaster have lost 5 of 7 at home and average only 1.08 goals scored per match.

Both teams have hit under 2.5 goals in 7 of their 13 league matches (53.8%), and Leyton Orient away games average just 2.17 total goals, suggesting the line is set slightly high.

Bradford's season over 2.5 rate is just 15.4%, and Leicester's attack faces a defence conceding only 0.62 per game; the model gives 64% for under 2.5, far above the 45% implied by the odds.

Both sides average more draws than wins, and Bradford's away record (3W 3D 1L, 4:3 goals) points to a low-margin contest; the model rates the draw at 36% versus a 28% market implied probability.

The draw offers a marginal edge at current odds, with Luton’s strong momentum (four wins and a draw in their last five) balanced by Cambridge’s tendency to avoid defeat away (just one away loss in seven league trips). Luton's recent run is impressive, but Cambridge's resilience and high draw rate (six in 14) suggest this could be tighter than the market expects.

Milton Keynes Dons are averaging 2.6 goals scored per game across their last five, with three of those matches seeing at least four goals, while Burton's last five have averaged 2.0 goals (scored and conceded combined). Both sides have season over 2.5 rates above 53%, and the hosts’ attacking surge is backed by high shot volume (16.8 per game).

MK Dons have won four of their last five and three straight at home, scoring 12 in their last two at Stadium MK. Burton have managed just one win in their last five and have failed to score in three of those, showing a clear form gulf.

Oxford United arrive in red-hot form, unbeaten in five (WDWDW) and conceding just 0.4 goals per game in that stretch, while Peterborough have lost four of their last five and average only 0.8 goals scored. Momentum and underlying numbers both favour the visitors, and the model's 52% away win probability is well above the 41.7% implied by the odds.

With Oxford United unbeaten in their last five and Peterborough winless in the same span, the visitors are strongly favoured to avoid defeat. The model rates X2 at 80% based on both teams' current trajectories.

Both sides' matches have cleared 2.5 goals in over half their games this season (Peterborough 46%, Oxford 54%), and Peterborough's defence has shipped 2.2 per game in their last five, suggesting an open contest. However, the price is about right, so only a small stake is justified.

The draw probability is modelled at 32% (odds equivalent 3.13), while the market offers 3.5 (28.6% implied), giving a 12% edge. Both teams have drawn 5 and 2 of their 13 and 14 matches respectively, and Wednesday have drawn 4 of 7 at home.

BTTS 'no' is modelled at 44% (odds equivalent 2.27), with the market at 2.5 (40% implied), for a 10% edge. Both sides have failed to score in 2 or more of their last 5, and neither has a high BTTS count recently.

The model estimates a 32% probability for the draw, higher than the 30.3% implied by 3.30 odds, with both teams averaging over one goal per game but lacking a decisive edge in attack or defence. Five of the last ten head-to-heads have ended level, and both sides have drawn four times already this season.

The model assigns a 28% probability to the draw, slightly above the 27% implied by the odds. Both teams have shown defensive resilience recently (Stockport 2 clean sheets in last 5, Reading 2 clean sheets), and Reading have already drawn 3 of 7 away matches this season.

Only 2 of Stockport's last 5 and 1 of Reading's last 5 have seen both teams score, and both keep clean sheets 36% of the time this season. The model's 47% probability for 'No' BTTS is above the market's implied 45.5%.

Both sides have hit under 2.5 goals in 50% of league games, and Reading's away matches average just 2.29 goals. The model's 46% probability for under 2.5 is a touch higher than the 44.4% implied by the odds.

Eight of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, and both teams average less than one win per three matches this season. The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw versus the market's 28.6% implied, creating a notable value edge.

Huddersfield's away record (4W 2D 1L, 12 scored, 5 conceded) is among the league's best, and their season scoring rate (2.0 per game) far outpaces Wycombe's home defence (12 conceded in 7). The model gives Huddersfield a 48% win probability, above the 45.5% implied by the odds.

Both teams average high corners in their last five (Wycombe 6.2, Huddersfield 5.8), with a combined estimate of 12.0, supporting a strong statistical case for a high-corner match.

Carlisle’s four-match winning streak has seen them average 2.2 goals per game while conceding just 0.8, and Boston United have conceded 16 in seven away league games. The 3-1 scoreline aligns with both teams’ recent attacking intent and Boston’s tendency to score even in defeat.

Nine first-half goals have been scored across Carlisle’s and Boston United’s last five games each, with both sides starting matches on the front foot. Carlisle have scored in the first half in four of their last five.

Boston have found the net in all of their last five, and Carlisle have kept just two clean sheets in that span. Both teams have scored in three of Carlisle’s last five and four of Boston’s last five league matches.

The model assigns a 26% probability to the draw, marginally above the market's 25.6% implied probability at 3.9, in a fixture with a high historical draw rate (5 of last 10 H2H) and both sides showing volatility in recent results.

Gateshead have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 0.6 goals per game this season, while Barrow have conceded only 0.8 per match over their last five. The away side’s defensive momentum and Gateshead’s blunt attack create a strong edge for 'BTTS: No'.

While Barrow are clear favourites, they have drawn four of their last fifteen and Gateshead have managed to hold out for a point twice this season. The probability of a draw is slightly undervalued by the market.

The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, slightly above the 26% implied by the 3.8 odds. Both teams have drawn a combined 3 of their last 10 league matches, and with Harrogate's 1.25 goals conceded per home game and Altrincham's 1.63 away, the distribution supports a close contest.

Wealdstone's away record (3W 2D 3L, 11 scored, 9 conceded) is notably stronger than Hartlepool's home output (3W 0D 4L, 6 scored, 7 conceded), and the model assigns a 39% win probability versus 29% implied by odds, creating a +32.6% value edge.

Both teams average above 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, with 56% of their combined matches going over 2.5 goals this season, but the odds slightly overstate the risk.

Both sides have seen BTTS in 3 of Hornchurch's last 5 and 4 of Tamworth's last 5, with Tamworth conceding in 86% of away games and Hornchurch scoring in every home match this season.

Model rates the draw at 29% versus a 27.8% implied probability, in a fixture where both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game and neither defence is reliable enough to hold a lead.

With 56% of Halifax’s league matches and 37.5% of Kidderminster’s going over 2.5 goals, and Halifax averaging 2.4 scored and 2.2 conceded per game in their last five, the model puts the chance of over 2.5 at 58% versus an implied 55.5% from the odds, yielding a modest positive edge.

With both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored in their last five and Scunthorpe's home record (2W, 1D, 3L, 11GF, 10GA) showing they can compete at Attis Arena, the model gives a 26% chance to the draw, slightly above the bookmaker's implied probability.

While both teams have been involved in BTTS games (Scunthorpe 4/5, Worthing 3/5 last five), the underlying season rates and Worthing's higher clean sheet percentage away (18.75%) suggest some value on 'no' at these odds.

Despite both sides' high over 2.5 rates (Scunthorpe 60%, Worthing 81.25%), the market may be overestimating the goal volume given recent attacking output (both averaging 1.4 goals in last five) and the risk of a lower tempo if Scunthorpe sit deep.

The model's probability for the draw (20%) exactly matches the implied probability at 5.00, so while there is no positive edge, this is the only market where the price is fair rather than short. Southend's defensive frailty (just 6% clean sheets this season) and Aldershot's tendency to keep games tight away (only 11 conceded in 8 away) make a stalemate plausible if Southend's attack misfires.

Both sides average above 2.5 total goals per game (Sutton Utd 1.25 scored, 1.31 conceded; Solihull Moors 1.19 scored, 2.5 conceded), and Solihull Moors have seen over 2.5 goals in 75% of their matches this season.

Sutton Utd have a solid home record (4W-1D-3L) and face a Solihull Moors side with the league's weakest away defence (22 conceded in 7 away), but the edge is marginal at current odds.

Forest Green's away scoring rate (1.4 goals per away game) and 64% over 2.5 goal rate for the season suggest a slight edge in offensive output, while Woking have lost half their home matches and conceded 1.75 per home game.

Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game, and Forest Green's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 64% of cases; model probability is 0.60, matching the odds.

Both sides have seen four of their last five matches finish with three or more goals, and Boreham Wood average 4.0 goals scored per game over their last five. Yeovil's defensive frailties and the visitors' relentless momentum make the over the most consistent trend.

While Boreham Wood are in exceptional form, Yeovil have only lost two of eight home games and the H2H history includes three draws in the last ten meetings. The draw is slightly undervalued given Yeovil's resilience at Huish Park.

Both teams average over a goal per game in their last five (Telford 1.6, Chelmsford 1.4), but neither side has kept more than one clean sheet in that span, suggesting a balanced contest with a high likelihood of both scoring but limited evidence for a high-scoring match.

The combined average goals per team over the last five matches is 3.0, but both sides have seen only one clean sheet each and a moderate BTTS rate (Telford 4/5, Chelmsford 2/5), with a slight lean to lower scoring based on defensive records and lack of extreme attacking output.

The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' recent average output (Alfreton 1.0 scored, Southport 0.6) and a pattern of close, low-scoring H2Hs (three draws in last ten, including a recent 1-1).

Both sides have struggled for goals recently (Alfreton 5 in last 5, Southport 3 in last 5) and only two of their last six H2Hs have seen over 2.5 goals.

Chester’s last five matches show a higher attacking output (1.0 goals per game) against stronger opposition, and Avro’s defensive record (1.6 goals conceded per game over the last five) suggests vulnerability against National League North calibre.

Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and Avro’s matches average 3.0 total goals recently; Chester’s cup ties have also trended high-scoring.

Avro have failed to score in two of their last five, but Chester’s defence has conceded in four of five, so the BTTS rate (3/5 for both) supports a slight lean to both finding the net.

Both Bath City and Truro City arrive on four-match winning streaks, and the last two head-to-heads at Twerton Park have been decided by a single goal or ended level. With Bath's defensive solidity (four clean sheets in five) and Truro's late-game attacking surge (ten second-half goals in five), the model rates the draw as the likeliest outcome in a contest between two sides at peak momentum.

Bath City have kept four clean sheets in their last five and seen only two of their last five go over 2.5 goals, while Truro have failed to score in one of their last five and typically do their damage after the break. The form points to a tight, low-scoring cup tie.

Both sides have struggled for goals recently, with Bedford Town averaging just 0.6 and Chesham United 0.8 goals per game over their last five, while three of Bedford's last five and three of Chesham's last five have seen at least one side fail to score.

Both sides have averaged over two goals scored per game in their last five, but Billericay have kept three clean sheets and are at home, making a narrow 2-1 home win the likeliest outcome by the model's distribution.

Recent matches for both teams have seen high goal averages (Billericay 3.0, Waltham Abbey 2.6 per game in last five), and the model assigns a 58% chance to over 2.5 goals.

BTTS has landed in 2 of Billericay's last 5 and 3 of Waltham Abbey's last 5, with both sides showing attacking threat and some defensive vulnerability.

Both teams have averaged over 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five, and 61% of their recent matches saw both sides score. Bourne Town's home attack (2.25 goals/game season average) edges the model towards a narrow home win.

Bourne Town's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of their FA Trophy games, and both sides have seen 4 of their last 5 matches land BTTS, suggesting a higher goal environment than the away side's season average implies.

Four of the last five for both clubs saw both teams score, and neither side has failed to score in that span, pointing to a strong BTTS probability.

Both teams have averaged over 3 goals per game in their last five, and Kettering Town's season over 2.5 goal rate stands at 100%, suggesting a high-scoring environment.

BTTS has landed in three of Braintree's last five and four of Kettering's last five, with both sides showing attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities.

Both sides average over two goals scored per game in their last five, and Bridlington Town's season over 2.5 rate stands at 100%, supporting a high-scoring expectation.

Neither side has failed to score in their last five matches, and both have conceded in at least two of those, indicating a strong likelihood of both teams finding the net.

Buxton have won three straight and average 2.4 goals per game over their last five, while Chorley have lost three of five and conceded 1.4 per game. The head-to-head also favours Buxton with five wins in the last nine meetings, including a 3-2 away win just three weeks ago.

Both sides are averaging 2.6 goals conceded per match combined over their last five, and seven of the last nine H2H meetings have seen at least three goals.

BTTS has landed in five of the last nine H2H matches and both teams have scored in five of their last ten combined fixtures, with Buxton especially prolific in the second half.

Dorking Wanderers' last five matches have averaged 4.4 total goals per game, with four of those featuring both teams scoring and three or more goals. Dagenham & Redbridge's defensive solidity at home is offset by Dorking's high attacking output, making the over 2.5 a statistically favourable angle.

Dorking Wanderers are on a two-match winning streak and have scored at least two goals in four of their last five, while Dagenham & Redbridge have failed to score in three of their last five and average just 0.6 goals per game over that span.

Both sides have seen a combined average of 3.8 goals per game across their last five matches, with Bury's last five averaging 4.4 goals and Darlington 2.8. Bury's season record in the league is 100% over 2.5 goals (2/2), and both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities.

Bury average 3 goals scored per game in their league campaign, have failed to score only once in their last five, and face a Darlington side with just one clean sheet in the same period and a current two-game losing streak.

Dartford's last five matches have averaged 4.2 total goals, with 80% of those games seeing both teams score and 100% of their season matches going over 2.5 goals.

Four of Dartford's last five and three of Totton's last five have seen both teams score, with both sides averaging over a goal per game in recent outings.

Didcot Town arrive with a WWDWL form string and a current two-match winning streak, contrasting sharply with Slough Town’s five straight defeats and 3.0 goals conceded per game over their last five. The momentum edge is firmly with the hosts.

Both teams have scored in all of Slough Town’s last five matches, and Didcot Town have only one clean sheet in their last three. The attacking trends outweigh defensive solidity on both sides.

Both teams have shown a strong tilt towards high-scoring games: Burgess Hill Town's last five average 4.6 total goals per game, and their season over 2.5 rate is 100%. Dover's recent matches also feature BTTS in three of five, supporting a goal-friendly environment.

Dover are unbeaten in four of their last five, have the only H2H win, and Burgess Hill Town have conceded 3.2 goals per game over their last five, suggesting home advantage may tilt a close game.

Chertsey Town arrive with a five-match unbeaten run (WWDWW), averaging 2.8 goals across their last five, and have not failed to score in that span. Their attacking momentum, especially away from home, stands out against an Eastbourne Borough side that has won four straight but with a lower attacking output (1.4 goals per game in last five) and a recent 3-0 defeat in cup action.

Both teams have seen 100% of their season matches go over 2.5 goals, and their last five averages are 1.4 (Eastbourne) and 2.8 (Chertsey) goals scored per game, with only one clean sheet between them in the last three combined matches.

Chertsey have scored in every one of their last five, while Eastbourne have failed to score just once in that span. Three of Chertsey’s last five have seen both teams score.

Enfield Town arrive on a three-match winning streak, scoring 15 goals in their last three outings and averaging 4.0 goals per game across their last five, while Spalding United have lost two of their last three away and conceded six without reply in their last two on the road.

Enfield Town's last five matches have all featured at least four goals, with a 100% over 2.5 rate in the season data and Spalding United conceding 2+ in three of their last five.

Both teams have scored in three of Enfield Town's last five and three of Spalding United's last five, with neither side recording more than two clean sheets in that span.

Both sides have averaged over 2.5 goals per game in their last five (Farnham Town 2.6, Ebbsfleet United 3.0), with three matches of 4+ goals each in that sample, supporting a high-goal environment.

Each team has failed to score just once in their last five, and both have shown attacking threat with 13 and 15 goals respectively across those matches.

Both sides have averaged over a goal per game in their last five, with three BTTS games each in that span, and the H2H record has produced three draws in the last ten meetings. The underlying rates point towards a balanced contest.

Only 50% of Cray Wanderers’ season games and just one of Folkestone’s last five have gone over 2.5, while both teams’ recent defensive numbers (1.2 and 0.8 conceded per game) suggest a moderate goal environment.

Four of Redditch United’s last five matches and three of Halesowen Town’s last five have seen both teams score, with both averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game in that period and defensive lapses evident on both sides.

Both teams average above 2 goals scored per game and concede at least 1 goal per game over their last five, while the head-to-head history features high scores: seven of the last ten meetings produced at least three goals.

Given the attacking output and defensive records, plus two draws in the last ten H2H and a high BTTS rate, a score draw is statistically plausible.

Guiseley AFC arrive with four wins and a draw from their last five, averaging 2.8 goals per game, while Hebburn Town are winless in five and have conceded 1.8 per match in that stretch. The away side's momentum is reinforced by a dominant head-to-head record, including a 4-1 win at Hebburn earlier this season.

Guiseley’s last five have seen an average of 3.8 total goals per game and Hebburn have conceded two or more in three of their last five. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Guiseley's league matches this season.

Hednesford Town have won four of their last five, conceding just three goals and keeping three clean sheets, while Hemel Hempstead Town are winless in five and shipped five in their most recent outing.

Hednesford have kept three clean sheets in their last five and Hemel Hempstead have failed to score in three of their last five, so both teams scoring appears unlikely.

Despite Hednesford's strong run, their games have averaged just 2.0 goals per match over the last five, and Hemel Hempstead have struggled for goals, suggesting a lower-scoring contest.

The model gives the draw a 38% probability, the highest of any outcome, reflecting both teams’ similar recent scoring/conceding rates and a H2H history with three draws in the last ten meetings.

Both sides average 1.4 goals conceded and Hereford have failed to score in three of five; only four of the last ten H2Hs have gone over 2.5, supporting a low-scoring match.

Both teams average under 2.5 goals per game in their last five (Horsham 2.2 scored/0.8 conceded, Torquay 1.8/0.8), and three of the last four H2H meetings have finished with exactly two or three goals, making a 1-1 draw the modal outcome.

Horsham have scored in all of their last five matches, while Torquay have failed to score only twice in the same span; both teams have a BTTS rate of at least 40% in recent games and the H2H is historically BTTS-friendly.

Both sides have averaged just over a goal per game in their last five, with King's Lynn Town scoring 1.0 and Stourbridge 2.0, but both have also shown defensive resilience (three clean sheets for King's Lynn in five, two for Stourbridge). The draw is the most probable outcome in a low-scoring environment.

The model estimates a 56% probability for under 2.5 goals, with both teams' recent matches trending under (King's Lynn's last five averaging 2.2 total goals, Stourbridge's at 2.8 but with two clean sheets).

Morecambe arrive with three consecutive wins and a lower average of goals conceded (1.0 per game in last five), while Leek Town have shipped 13 in their last five and lost three straight against stronger opposition.

Both sides average above 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five, and Leek Town matches have seen a mean of 4.8 total goals per game across that stretch.

Leek Town have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, and Morecambe have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last five.

Maidstone Utd have won three of their last five, including a recent 2-1 home win over Maidenhead, and have scored in every one of their last five matches, while Maidenhead arrive winless in five and averaging just 0.4 goals per game over that stretch.

Both teams have scored in all of Maidstone's last five matches, and the last two H2H meetings have ended 2-1, suggesting a strong BTTS trend despite Maidenhead's recent attacking struggles.

Harborough Town have conceded just 1.2 goals per game over their last five, compared to Merthyr Town's 2.2, and have two wins in that stretch while Merthyr have none. The away side's higher recent shot and goal output tips the balance.

Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five, with Merthyr conceding heavily (2.2 per game). Four of Merthyr's last five have seen both teams score, supporting the over.

BTTS has landed in four of Merthyr's last five and three of Harborough's, with both sides failing to score just once in that span.

Both teams have scored in three of their last five matches, and Newmarket average 2.5 goals scored per game this season while Oxford City have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five.

Newmarket have seen over 2.5 goals in 75% of their season matches and Oxford City's recent games average 3.2 total goals per match.

Marine have won six of the last ten head-to-heads, including three of the last four as the away side, and their last five average concession rate (1.4 per game) matches Radcliffe's, but Marine have failed to score in none of their last five.

Both teams average 1.4 goals conceded in their last five and Radcliffe’s home matches have included a 3-3 and a 4-1, supporting a moderate goal environment.

BTTS has landed in five of the last ten H2H meetings and three of Marine’s last five, with Radcliffe scoring in four of their last five.

Both Salisbury and Chichester City average over 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five, with Salisbury at 2.0 and Chichester at 1.8, and three of the last five for each saw both teams score. The model assigns a 56% probability to over 2.5 goals based on these offensive rates and recent BTTS trends.

Salisbury come in on a nine-match unbeaten run (WWDWW) with 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game in their last five, while Chichester's away record is strong but from a lower division and against weaker opposition. The home win probability is 47%.

Seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings have ended level, and both sides' recent scoring and conceding rates point to a low-scoring, balanced contest.

Scarborough Athletic have not lost to Spennymoor Town in their last nine meetings, and Spennymoor have only one win in their last five matches.

Aveley have won four of their last five matches and average 1.8 goals per game in that stretch, while Walton & Hersham have lost three straight and failed to score in each of those defeats.

Aveley’s matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their season games and 60% of their last five, while Walton & Hersham’s defensive record suggests further vulnerability.

Aveley have scored in every match across their last five and Walton & Hersham, despite recent blanks, have a 54% BTTS probability based on model rates and Aveley’s concession average (1.2 per game last five).

The 1-1 scoreline is supported by the near-identical defensive records in the last five (both conceding 2.8 per game), a high BTTS rate for Weston-super-Mare (4/5), and a history of draws in H2H meetings.

Weston-super-Mare have seen BTTS in four of their last five, while Farnborough have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of five; both sides' defensive frailties point to goals at both ends.

Despite recent heavy defeats, both teams average under 1.0 goals scored per game across their last five, with only two of the last ten H2H meetings going over 3.5 goals.

Weymouth have won four of their last five matches, averaging 2.8 goals per game in that spell, while Hampton & Richmond are winless in five and have conceded 2.4 goals per game. The home side's attacking momentum is the strongest signal in this fixture.

Weymouth's last five have all featured at least three goals, with a 100% over 2.5 rate in their season record and 4/5 BTTS. Hampton & Richmond's defensive frailty (12 conceded in 5) supports a high-goal expectation.

Both teams have scored in four of Weymouth's last five and three of Hampton & Richmond's last five, with the away side only failing to score twice despite poor results.

Tonbridge Angels have collected three wins and a draw from their last five, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game, while Whitehawk are winless in five and conceding three per match on average.

Whitehawk's last five have averaged 3.8 total goals, with four of five seeing both teams score, and their defence has been breached 15 times in that span.

Despite Tonbridge's defensive solidity, Whitehawk have failed to score just once in five and both teams have scored in four of their last five.

Both teams have seen 100% of their season games go over 2.5 goals, and their last five match averages are 2.0 and 2.2 goals scored per game respectively, supporting a high goal expectancy.

All three previous head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, and both sides are coming in with strong defensive records (four clean sheets each in last five), increasing the likelihood of another stalemate.

Despite recent clean sheets, both teams average over 2 goals scored per game in their last five, and two of their last three head-to-heads have finished 2-2 or 3-3.

Both teams average at least 2.5 goals scored per game in their respective cup campaigns, with Hashtag United's matches hitting over 2.5 goals 100% of the time and Wingate & Finchley at 50%, but both have high recent scoring and concession rates.

Wingate & Finchley have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, and Hashtag United have failed to score just twice in the same span; neither side is consistently keeping clean sheets recently.

Given both sides' high-scoring tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, a 2-2 draw is the single likeliest outcome in the model's distribution.

Both sides average at least 2 goals scored per game across their last five, with South Shields conceding 1.8 per match and Worksop Town also seeing three of their last five go over 2.5 goals. The match rates as a high-goal environment by recent output.

Worksop Town have scored in four of their last five, South Shields in all five, and both teams to score has landed in three of Worksop's and four of South Shields' last five matches.

Dulwich Hamlet W have averaged 2.4 goals scored per match over their last five, while Portishead W have conceded at a 2.6 per game clip in the same span. With home advantage and a more consistent attacking output, the model gives the hosts a 44% win probability, ahead of the likely market price.

Both teams have produced high-scoring matches in recent cup ties: Dulwich Hamlet W have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five, and Portishead W's defensive record is volatile. The model rates over 2.5 at 55%.

Workington's three straight wins and a 3.5 goals per game season average contrast with Ashton's two-game losing streak and 1.5 goals per game, making the away win the model's most probable outcome, though no bookmaker odds are available to confirm value.

Both teams have high recent BTTS rates (Ashton 3/5, Workington 4/5) and Workington's season matches are 100% over 2.5 goals, indicating a strong likelihood of a goal-rich contest.

Sporting Gijon have won four of their last five in all competitions and arrive on a W2 streak, while Real Sociedad II have lost four of five and conceded 12 goals in that stretch. The visitors' away record (4 wins from 6) and current momentum outweigh the hosts' home struggles.

Real Sociedad II have scored in four of their last five despite poor results, and Sporting Gijon have only two clean sheets in their last five league games. Both teams have seen BTTS in three of the hosts' last five and two of the visitors'.

The model gives a 34% probability to the draw, above the 29.4% implied by 3.4 odds. Both teams have drawn 5+ matches this season and the last 10 H2H meetings have produced 5 draws, reinforcing the statistical deadlock.

Fleetwood's home games average 2.14 goals, Tranmere's away games 2.43, and both teams have under 2.5 in over half their matches (Fleetwood 57%, Tranmere 64%). Model probability for under 2.5 is 56%.

Almeria have won five of six at home (15 scored, 5 conceded) and face an Andorra side with just one away win and a season-long concession rate of 1.83 goals per game. The home win probability is modelled at 56% based on these rates.

Both sides are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Almeria 50%, Andorra 58%) and combine for 40 goals in 24 matches this season. The model puts the over at 54%.

Cordoba matches have seen 75% over 2.5 goals this season (22 scored, 19 conceded in 12 games), while Mallorca are trending upward in attack at home (12 goals in 6 home games); the model rates over 2.5 at 53%.

Mallorca's home record (5W-0D-1L, 12:3 goal difference) is among the division's best, and Cordoba have lost four of seven away (14 conceded); the model gives Mallorca a 49% win probability.

Cordoba have failed to score only once in 12 league games and average 1.58 goals for, but have conceded in 83% of matches; Mallorca have seen BTTS in four of their last five.

London City Lionesses W have seen 87.5% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and both sides average over 1.2 goals conceded per game across their last five, supporting a high-goal environment.

Both teams have scored in 4 of Arsenal W's last 5 and all 5 of London City Lionesses W's last 5 league games, with neither side keeping a clean sheet in that span.

Both teams have seen high over 2.5 rates (Sheffield United W 83%, Bristol City W 67%), and their combined season average is 3.83 goals per game. Four of the last five matches for each side have gone over 2.5.

BTTS has landed in four of the last five for both teams, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in that stretch. Defensive records are poor: Sheffield United W concede 2.33 per game, Bristol City W 1.5.

The model gives the draw a 29% chance, slightly above the implied probability. Both teams have inconsistent form (LLWLW each in last five) and the underlying rates suggest a competitive, high-scoring contest.

Both sides average under a goal per game (America Mineiro 0.72, Avai 0.92), and each has kept two clean sheets in the last five. The draw is the most likely outcome, with a 1-1 reflecting the underlying rates and the high frequency of low-scoring H2H encounters.

Season-long data shows America Mineiro at 47% and Avai at 42% over 2.5 goals, both below league average, and their recent games have featured few BTTS outcomes (just one each in the last five).

Eight of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, and both teams are struggling for attacking fluency with just one goal apiece in their last three matches. The model gives a 38% probability to the draw, higher than typical for this market, driven by both recent form and the entrenched H2H stalemate trend.

Both teams average under one goal per game across their last five (Atletico Goianiense 0.6, Cuiaba 0.2), and the last five H2Hs have all gone under 2.5. The model assigns an 81% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting the sustained lack of attacking output and defensive caution.

Cuiaba have failed to score in four of their last five matches, and Atletico Goianiense have blanked in two of five. With a combined BTTS rate of just 20% over their last five, the model rates 'No' at 78% probability.

CRB’s home scoring rate (1.83 per game) and 10 home wins from 18 suggest a clear edge over a Ceara side with just 3 away wins and a 1.11 goals per away game average.

CRB’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 63.9% of games this season, and their last five average 3.0 total goals, indicating a higher-than-average goal environment.

Both sides combine for over 13 corners per game across their last five, with CRB alone averaging 9.2, supporting a high-corner scenario.

Novorizontino's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 58% of league games, and their away scoring rate (1.72 per game) meets a Criciuma defence that has conceded in 53% of home matches. Both teams' recent attacking output supports a higher goal environment.

Novorizontino are top of the table, have the best away attack in the division (31 goals in 18 away), and are unbeaten in five (WWDWW), while Criciuma's home scoring rate is modest at 1.17 per game.

Both sides average between 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored per game and concede at similar rates, with draws featuring heavily in recent form (Fortaleza: 14 draws in 36, Vila Nova: 9 draws), making 1-1 the modal outcome given the underlying rates.

Season over 2.5 goal percentages are low for both teams (Fortaleza 36%, Vila Nova 39%), and both are in the league’s top five for clean sheet rates, supporting a low-scoring expectation.

Combined last 5 match averages yield 12 corners per game, and both teams have recently posted high single-match totals (Fortaleza: 7, 9, 6; Vila Nova: 9, 3, 6, 4, 8), indicating a likely high set-piece count.

Both sides average well under 2.5 goals per game across the season (Juventude 1.31 scored, 0.69 conceded; Botafogo SP 1.22 scored, 1.05 conceded), with under 2.5 landing in 63.9% and 59.5% of their matches respectively.

This is the modal outcome by the model (23% probability), supported by both teams' low concession rates and the high draw frequency in their H2H history (4 draws in 7 meetings).

Both teams average between 1.1 and 1.2 goals scored per game and have struggled to consistently outscore their defensive frailties; the 1-1 has been the modal result in similar matchups and aligns with the home/away splits.

Londrina's home matches average 2.67 goals but Nautico Recife away games are at 2.72, yet both sides' recent attacking form is muted (Nautico just 1 goal in 5, Londrina 1.0 per game last 5), making a low total likely.

Both teams average just over a goal scored and conceded per game (São Bernardo 1.42 for/1.11 against; Athletic Club 1.17 for/1.14 against), with 1-1 the modal outcome in similar mid-table matchups and a 21% model probability.

São Bernardo home matches average 1.22 goals for and 1.17 against, while Athletic Club away games see 1.06 for and 1.22 against; both have under 50% over 2.5 rates (São Bernardo 50%, Athletic Club 41.7%).

These sides combine for 12+ corners per game over their last five (São Bernardo 6.4, Athletic Club 5.6), with both recently posting high corner counts regardless of venue.

Goias arrive on a five-match unbeaten run (WWDWW) with three clean sheets and a last 5 average of just 0.4 goals conceded per game, while Sport Recife have stumbled with only one win in their last five (LDWLD) and have failed to keep a clean sheet in that span. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, who are also creating more chances (16.8 shots per game) and have shown late-game resilience with five second-half goals in their last five.

Goias’s current form string (WWDWW) and defensive solidity (three clean sheets in five) contrast sharply with Sport Recife’s recent defensive lapses (1.6 goals conceded per game last five). With both sides level on points and Goias trending up, the visitors are well-placed to avoid defeat.

Despite Goias’s improved attack, both sides’ season-long under 2.5 rates (Sport 48.65%, Goias 63.89%) and the away side’s recent defensive record point towards a tight contest, with only two of Goias’s last five exceeding two goals.

Both sides average close to 1.5 goals scored per game and have similar defensive records, while the draw has been common in recent H2H meetings (4 in last 10). The 1-1 is the modal outcome from the model's distribution.

Oviedo's home matches average just 2 goals per game (7 for, 5 against in 6), and Girona away games see only 2.2 (6 for, 5 against in 5). Season-long over 2.5 rates are 58% for Oviedo but only 42% for Girona, with a recent downward trend in Girona's away scoring.

Mirassol have taken 7 points from their last 4 at home and arrive on a WLDWL run, while Atletico-MG have lost five straight in all competitions, scoring just twice in that stretch. The hosts’ recent momentum and home solidity outweigh the away side’s season-long table advantage.