Scunthorpe vs Worthing Predictions
National League · England
Scunthorpe
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Worthing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 2.7(+9% edge)
Recommended Bets: Scunthorpe vs Worthing
Scunthorpe vs Worthing: Match Preview
Scunthorpe enter the match in a deep slump, having lost their last three league games and sitting 23rd in the National League with just 10 points from 15 matches. Their defensive record is among the worst in the division, conceding 30 goals (2.0 per game), and their home form (2W, 1D, 3L) offers only faint encouragement. Worthing, by contrast, are sixth with 28 points from 16 games, boasting one of the league's strongest away records (4W, 2D, 1L), and arrive with a recent away win at Kidderminster and a cup victory over Fulham U21s in their last five.
The statistical matchup is shaped by both sides' attacking intent and defensive openness. Scunthorpe average 1.27 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, while Worthing post 2.0 scored and 1.56 conceded, with a striking 81.25% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Both teams' last five games show a dip in output (1.4 goals scored per side), but Worthing's away attack (15 goals in 7) faces a Scunthorpe defence that has managed just one clean sheet all season (6.67%). First-half goals have been less frequent for Worthing (just one in their last five), suggesting a greater threat after the interval.
The model expects Worthing's superior away form and attacking rate to tilt the balance, but Scunthorpe's home goal rate and the high draw probability (26%) keep the contest open. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with the game most likely to be decided by Worthing's ability to exploit Scunthorpe's defensive lapses, especially in the second half. However, if Scunthorpe can frustrate early and keep the first half tight, the draw or a lower-scoring result remains plausible.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Scunthorpe vs Worthing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Scunthorpe vs Worthing that most previews miss.
- 1Worthing's away matches average 3.71 total goals per game (15 scored, 11 conceded in 7), among the highest in the league.
- 2Scunthorpe have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and have only managed one all season (6.67% clean sheet rate).
- 3Both teams have scored exactly 1.4 goals per game on average over their last five matches, despite much higher season-long over 2.5 rates.
Who do you think wins: Scunthorpe vs Worthing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Scunthorpe vs Worthing(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.76
With both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored in their last five and Scunthorpe's home record (2W, 1D, 3L, 11GF, 10GA) showing they can compete at Attis Arena, the model gives a 26% chance to the draw, slightly above the bookmaker's implied probability.
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BTTS: No@ 2.8
While both teams have been involved in BTTS games (Scunthorpe 4/5, Worthing 3/5 last five), the underlying season rates and Worthing's higher clean sheet percentage away (18.75%) suggest some value on 'no' at these odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.7
Despite both sides' high over 2.5 rates (Scunthorpe 60%, Worthing 81.25%), the market may be overestimating the goal volume given recent attacking output (both averaging 1.4 goals in last five) and the risk of a lower tempo if Scunthorpe sit deep.
Read more ↓
More National League Predictions
The Case For This Scunthorpe vs Worthing Prediction
Scunthorpe's defensive frailty (2.0 goals conceded per game, lowest clean sheet rate in the division) meets a Worthing side that travels well (4W, 2D, 1L away, 15GF, 11GA) but is not immune to conceding. With both teams' recent form showing similar attacking output but Worthing's season-long metrics and league position (6th, +7 GD) marking them as clear favourites, the statistical shape points to a high-probability away win but with a significant draw risk if Scunthorpe can contain early.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Worthing's away record is among the league's best (4W, 2D, 1L, 15GF, 11GA), and they average 2.0 goals scored per game overall.
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in a combined 70%+ of matches, but recent five-game averages show only 1.4 goals scored per side.
Defence
- →Scunthorpe have lost their last three league matches and sit 23rd, conceding 2.0 goals per game across the season.
How Scunthorpe and Worthing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Scunthorpe vs Worthing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Scunthorpelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worthinglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Scunthorpe are in a poor run, losing their last three league matches and conceding 9 goals in that span. Worthing, despite a recent home defeat, have won two of their last five in all competitions and remain unbeaten in their last three away league games, maintaining momentum near the playoff places.
Scunthorpe vs Worthing — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 81.25% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Scunthorpe vs Worthing
The model spots marginal value on the draw at 4.0 (26% model probability vs 25% implied), and on 'BTTS: No' at 2.75, with the market potentially overestimating the likelihood of both teams scoring. The under 2.5 goals price (2.7) also offers a small edge given recent attacking output, despite high season-long over rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Scunthorpe vs Worthing
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for this fixture; all matchup analysis is based on team rates rather than direct history.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data for either side limits the granularity of attack/defence matchup assessment.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available at time of analysis; late injuries or rotations could affect probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Scunthorpe 1–2 WorthingThe model projects a 2-1 win for Worthing, driven by their 2.0 goals per game season average and strong away record (4W, 2D, 1L). Scunthorpe's defensive record and current losing streak point to further struggles, but their ability to score at home and Worthing's own defensive lapses mean a draw or a lower-scoring game is the main risk to this call.
Scunthorpe vs Worthing: Common Questions
Who will win Scunthorpe vs Worthing?
Worthing are favoured with a 51% win probability, compared to 23% for Scunthorpe and 26% for the draw. Worthing's strong away record and higher scoring rate are key factors.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Worthing?
The model gives a 61% chance of both teams scoring, with both sides averaging 1.4 goals in their last five and Scunthorpe involved in BTTS in 4 of those matches.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet in Scunthorpe vs Worthing?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 68% probability, reflecting both teams' high season-long over 2.5 rates (Scunthorpe 60%, Worthing 81.25%) and Worthing's high-scoring away games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Scunthorpe vs Worthing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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