Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Predictions
League One · England
Stevenage
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Mansfield Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+6% edge)
Recommended Bets: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town: Match Preview
Stevenage and Mansfield Town meet at Lamex Stadium with both sides locked in mid-table, separated by just three points and showing little to split them on recent form. Stevenage come in off a 2-2 away draw at Leicester and have alternated wins and losses in their last five, while Mansfield's last five include two wins and two draws, their only defeat a 0-2 home loss to Notts County. With both teams averaging over a goal per game and neither side stringing together consistent results, the stakes are for incremental progress rather than a decisive leap up the table.
Statistically, this is a contest of fine margins. Stevenage's home attack (1.5 goals per game, 12.4 shots, 4 on target in the last five) faces a Mansfield away defence conceding 1.57 per game. Conversely, Mansfield's away attack (1.43 goals per game, 15.2 shots, 4.6 on target) meets a Stevenage home defence that has conceded 1.0 per game. Both sides have struggled for clean sheets—Stevenage and Mansfield each with two in their last five—and the head-to-head record is replete with draws, including three straight 1-1s. Set-piece threat is moderate: Mansfield average 7 corners per game in their last five, Stevenage 3.6, while both teams are disciplined, combining for just under 3 yellow cards per game.
The model expects a cagey, statistically balanced match, with neither team able to sustain attacking pressure for long spells. The likeliest outcomes are low-scoring draws or narrow wins either way, but the prevalence of 1-1 scorelines in the head-to-head and the similar underlying rates point to a stalemate as the most probable result. Expect the match to be decided by small moments rather than sustained superiority.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Stevenage vs Mansfield Town that most previews miss.
- 1Three of the last four Stevenage vs Mansfield league meetings have finished 1-1.
- 2Mansfield's away matches average 3.0 total goals this season, but their last two on the road have both gone under 2.5.
- 3Stevenage's last five home games have seen both teams score only once.
Who do you think wins: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
The model estimates a 32% probability for the draw, higher than the 30.3% implied by 3.30 odds, with both teams averaging over one goal per game but lacking a decisive edge in attack or defence. Five of the last ten head-to-heads have ended level, and both sides have drawn four times already this season.
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The Case For This Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a balanced contest between two sides whose season-long scoring and concession rates are closely matched. Stevenage average 1.42 goals for and 1.08 against per game, while Mansfield Town come in at 1.54 for and 1.38 against, with both teams posting mid-table records and similar home/away splits. Recent form does little to separate them: Stevenage's last five (DLWLW) and Mansfield's (DLWWD) both feature two wins, two draws, and a loss, and neither side has a major injury concern. The matchup pivots on the marginal differences in attack and defence. Stevenage's home record (3W, 1D, 2L, 9:6 goals) is solid but not dominant, while Mansfield's away record (2W, 2D, 3L, 10:11 goals) suggests they are competitive on the road but concede frequently. Both teams average over 12 shots and 4 shots on target per game in recent matches, but clean sheets have been rare—Stevenage have two in their last five, Mansfield the same. Notably, Mansfield's last five away matches have yielded an average of 2.6 total goals, and Stevenage's home games 2.5, supporting a moderate goal expectation. Given the statistical symmetry and a head-to-head history that has produced five draws in the last ten meetings (including three straight 1-1s), the model expects a closely fought match with neither side consistently able to impose themselves. The most likely outcomes cluster around the 1-1 and 2-1/1-2 scorelines, and the draw is marginally favoured as the value play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Stevenage average 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game this season; Mansfield average 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Match Context
- →Stevenage's home record is 3W, 1D, 2L (9:6 goals); Mansfield's away record is 2W, 2D, 3L (10:11 goals).
- →Five of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, three of them 1-1.
🚩 Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Stevenage and 5 for Mansfield Town, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Stevenage and Mansfield Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Stevenagelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mansfield Townlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stevenage have alternated wins and losses in their last five matches (DLWLW), including a 3-0 home win over Plymouth and a 2-2 draw away at Leicester. Mansfield Town's recent form (DLWWD) features two away wins at Blackpool and AFC Wimbledon, but also a 0-2 home defeat to Notts County and a goalless draw at Wigan. Both sides have shown resilience but lack a consistent winning streak.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended in draws, with three consecutive 1-1 scorelines in league play. Mansfield Town have won five of the last ten overall, but Stevenage have managed to avoid defeat in the last two head-to-heads at home. The fixture has consistently produced tight, low-scoring games.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Stevenage wins
4
Draws
5
Mansfield Town wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
The model finds the draw at 3.30 to be the standout value, with a 32% model probability outpacing the 30.3% implied by the odds. Other markets such as BTTS 'no' and over 2.5 goals are near fair, with minimal edge. The statistical symmetry between the teams makes the draw the most attractive from a value perspective.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is mixed, with no clear momentum swing.
- ⚠️Goal output has fluctuated for both sides, increasing variance in scoreline probabilities.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed for this fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Stevenage 1–1 Mansfield TownThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, underpinned by both teams' nearly identical scoring and concession rates and a head-to-head history dominated by draws. The strongest data point is the sequence of three consecutive 1-1s in recent league meetings. The main risk is that either side capitalises on defensive lapses—Mansfield's slightly higher shot volume or Stevenage's home advantage—breaking the statistical deadlock.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town: Common Questions
Who will win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
The model gives Stevenage a 38% chance to win, Mansfield Town a 30% chance, and the draw a 32% chance. Both teams' season-long goal rates and recent form suggest a closely matched contest, with the draw marginally favoured for value.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
There's a 54% probability that both teams will score, with each averaging over a goal per game and clean sheets being relatively rare—Stevenage and Mansfield have just two each in their last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 52%, supported by Mansfield's 61.5% season over 2.5 rate and Stevenage's 50%. However, both teams have been involved in several low-scoring draws, so the margin is slim.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.