Darlington 1883 vs Bury Predictions

Darlington 1883 PredictionsBury PredictionsFA TrophyH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
FA TrophyFA Trophy · England
high confidence
Darlington 1883

Darlington 1883

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

Bury

Bury

🗓️ Saturday, 14 Nov 2026 at 15:00 GMT (venue time) · 15:00 UTC (your time)📍 Blackwell Meadows, Darlington

Win Probability (1X2)

Darlington 1883 27%Draw 27%Bury 46%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Darlington 1883 vs Bury

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10
Match Result: Bury Win
6/10

Darlington 1883 vs Bury: Match Preview

Darlington enter this FA Trophy tie with a mixed recent run, having lost three of their last five, including back-to-back defeats away from home. Their only win in this spell came at home, but overall, the side has struggled for consistency and defensive solidity, conceding at least once in four of their last five. Bury, meanwhile, arrive with a more potent attacking record, scoring 12 goals in their last five outings and remaining unbeaten in their brief league campaign so far.

Statistically, the matchup points to a high-goal environment. Bury's matches average 4.0 goals per game in their league, with both teams scoring in four of their last five fixtures. Darlington's own games have seen both teams net in three of the last five, and both sides are notably stronger in the second half—Bury have scored seven of their last twelve after the break, while Darlington have five of their last seven in the same period. Defensive vulnerabilities are present on both sides, with only two clean sheets combined in their last ten matches.

Given these trends, the model anticipates an open contest with Bury's sharper attack likely to be decisive. Darlington's home advantage and occasional resilience keep them in the contest, but Bury's scoring rate and ability to come from behind suggest a 2-1 away win is the most probable outcome, with the potential for further goals if either defence falters.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Darlington 18831.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Bury1.80

Expected goals · model says 1.80

Win Probability
Darlington 1883 29% Draw 23% Bury 48%

Over 2.5 Goals

61%

BTTS: Yes

62%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Darlington 1883 vs Bury Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
27%
27%
46%
Darlington 1883 27%Draw 27%Bury 46%
Both Teams to Score
58%
42%
Yes 58%No 42%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
62%
38%
Over 2.5 62%Under 2.5 38%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Darlington 1883 vs Bury that most previews miss.

  • 1Bury's league matches are 100% over 2.5 goals (2/2) and their last five in all competitions average 4.4 goals per game.
  • 2Both teams have scored in seven of the last ten combined matches for these sides.
  • 3Darlington have scored just twice before half-time in their last five, compared to Bury's five first-half goals.

Who do you think wins: Darlington 1883 vs Bury?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Darlington 1883 vs Bury Prediction

This fixture brings together two sides with contrasting attacking profiles: Darlington have averaged just 1.4 goals per game in their last five, while Bury are scoring at a 2.4 per game clip and have not failed to score in any of their last five. The defensive records are similarly divergent, with Darlington conceding 1.4 per game and Bury 2.0, pointing towards an open contest. The statistical matchup is shaped by Bury's high-scoring tendencies—100% of their league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and four of their last five have seen both teams find the net. Darlington's only clean sheet in their last five came at home, but their overall record shows three matches with both teams scoring. Both sides have been more productive after the break, with Bury netting seven second-half goals in their last five, and Darlington five. The model expects Bury's superior attacking output to tip the balance, especially given Darlington's lack of recent defensive solidity. With both teams trending towards high-scoring games and Bury showing a higher ceiling in attack, a 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, though the defensive frailties on both sides keep the draw and higher-scoring scenarios in play.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →Bury average 3.0 goals scored per game in their league season, compared to Darlington's 1.4 over the last five.

Defence

  • →Darlington have kept just one clean sheet in their last five matches and are on a two-match losing run.

Match Context

  • →Bury have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their league matches and four of their last five in all competitions.

How Darlington 1883 and Bury Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Darlington 1883 vs Bury Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.

Darlington 1883Darlington 1883last 5 matches
D. Stephenson
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

J. Hazel
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

M. Beck
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. Rutledge
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

BuryBurylast 5 matches
M. Touray
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

D. Telford
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

K. Evans
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

J. Melhado
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

L. Graham
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

O. Robinson
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Darlington's recent form is patchy, with a 'LLWLD' sequence and two consecutive losses, conceding six goals in their last three. Bury, by contrast, are on a 'DLWWL' run but have scored in every match and average 2.4 goals per game over their last five, suggesting greater attacking momentum.

Darlington 1883 vs Bury — Last 5 Matches

Darlington 1883Darlington 1883Last 5 results
L2-3
L0-1
W3-0
L1-2
D1-1
L@ Spalding United2-3
L@ Morecambe0-1
Wvs Spennymoor Town3-0
L@ AFC Telford United1-2
Dvs Merthyr Town1-1

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
BuryBuryLast 2 results
W3-0
D3-3
Wvs Prescot Cables3-0
Dvs Gainsborough Trinity3-3

Strengths

  • +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +50% clean sheet rate this season
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season

Concerns

  • −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game

Things to Watch: Darlington 1883 vs Bury

  • ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data available, increasing model uncertainty.
  • ⚠️Darlington's season record is missing, so last five matches are weighted more heavily than ideal.
  • ⚠️Odds data is unavailable, so value edges cannot be precisely calculated.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Darlington 1883 1–2 Bury

The model predicts a 2-1 win for Bury, driven by their 3.0 goals-per-game league average and consistent scoring form. The main risk to this outcome is the lack of full-season data for Darlington, which could mask a stronger home performance than recent form suggests.

Darlington 1883 vs Bury: Common Questions

Who will win Darlington 1883 vs Bury?

The model gives Bury a 46% chance of victory, compared to 27% for Darlington and 27% for the draw. Bury's superior attacking record and recent form tip the balance in their favour.

Will both teams score in Darlington 1883 vs Bury?

There is a 58% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides having seen BTTS in at least three of their last five matches and Bury yet to fail to score in their last five.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in Darlington 1883 vs Bury?

The probability for over 2.5 goals is 62%, supported by Bury's 100% over 2.5 rate in league play and a combined average of 3.8 goals per game across the last five matches for both sides.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Darlington 1883 vs Bury: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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