Alfreton Town vs Southport Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Alfreton Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Southport
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Alfreton Town vs Southport
Alfreton Town vs Southport: Match Preview
Alfreton Town approach this FA Trophy tie with mixed momentum, having won two, drawn two, and lost one of their last five matches. Their recent home form includes a narrow 2-1 win, but a heavy 0-4 defeat away last time out highlights defensive vulnerabilities. Southport, meanwhile, are winless in their last five (three losses, two draws), and have struggled to find the net, failing to score in three of those games. With no league table context available, both sides have something to prove in cup competition.
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, balanced contest. Alfreton average 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Southport's attack has been even less productive at 0.6 scored per match. Both sides have managed just one clean sheet in that period. The head-to-head record is similarly even, with three draws in the last ten meetings, including a recent 1-1. Neither team has shown a particular strength in set pieces or discipline, and goal timing trends suggest a slow start: just three first-half goals combined in their last ten encounters.
The model expects a cautious opening and a contest decided by fine margins. With both teams lacking attacking punch and recent H2Hs tilting towards stalemates, a 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome. Under 2.5 goals and a draw at half-time are both supported by the underlying rates, with little to separate these sides on current form.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Alfreton Town vs Southport Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Alfreton Town vs Southport that most previews miss.
- 1Alfreton and Southport have combined for just 1.6 goals scored per game across their last five matches.
- 2In their last ten head-to-heads, 60% of matches have finished with two goals or fewer.
- 3Southport have not scored a second-half goal in any of their last five matches.
Who do you think wins: Alfreton Town vs Southport?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Alfreton Town vs Southport(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' recent average output (Alfreton 1.0 scored, Southport 0.6) and a pattern of close, low-scoring H2Hs (three draws in last ten, including a recent 1-1).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have struggled for goals recently (Alfreton 5 in last 5, Southport 3 in last 5) and only two of their last six H2Hs have seen over 2.5 goals.
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More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Alfreton Town vs Southport Prediction
A statistical deadlock is in play between Alfreton Town and Southport, with neither side showing a decisive edge in recent output. Alfreton have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, while Southport have struggled even more with 0.6 scored and the same 1.4 conceded. Both teams have just one clean sheet in that span, and each has failed to score multiple times. The matchup tilts towards a low-event contest: Alfreton's home attack has produced only two goals in their last home FA Trophy fixture, while Southport's away attack has failed to score in two of their last three on the road. The H2H record reinforces this, with three draws in the last ten meetings and several matches finishing 1-1 or 0-0. Neither side has a clear set-piece or discipline advantage, and both have shown a tendency to keep games tight, especially in the first half (combined three first-half goals in last ten H2Hs). Given the lack of attacking momentum and the historical trend towards close contests, the model projects a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome. The rates point to a 1-1, with a slight lean to under 2.5 goals and a high probability of a level score at half-time.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average fewer than 1.5 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
- →Three of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with two finishing 1-1.
Match Context
- →Southport have failed to score in three of their last five outings.
How Alfreton Town and Southport Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Alfreton Town vs Southport Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Alfreton Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Southportlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alfreton Town's recent form is mixed, with two wins, two draws, and a heavy defeat in their last five. Their attack has been inconsistent, managing just five goals in that span. Southport arrive in weaker shape, winless in five and having failed to score in three of those matches, indicating a blunt attack and limited momentum.
Alfreton Town vs Southport — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Alfreton Town vs Southport
The last ten meetings between these sides have been closely contested, with Southport edging the win count 4-3 and three matches ending in draws. Scorelines have typically been tight, with four matches finishing either 1-1 or 2-2, and only one fixture seeing more than three goals.
Alfreton Town vs Southport Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Alfreton Town wins
3
Draws
4
Southport wins
Things to Watch: Alfreton Town vs Southport
- ⚠️No current season league standings or full home/away splits available for either team.
- ⚠️Absence of shots, possession, and set-piece data limits attack/defence calibration.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Alfreton Town 1–1 SouthportThe model predicts a 1-1 draw, shaped by both teams' recent scoring rates and a head-to-head history of close, low-scoring matches. The strongest data point is Southport's attacking struggles—just 0.6 goals per game in their last five and three matches without scoring. The main risk is that Alfreton's defensive lapses, as seen in their recent 0-4 defeat, could open the door for a higher-scoring outcome than the underlying rates suggest.
Alfreton Town vs Southport: Common Questions
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Southport?
The model gives Alfreton a 36% chance of victory, Southport a 28% chance, and a draw 36%. With both teams averaging under 1.5 goals per game recently and a balanced head-to-head record, a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs Southport?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 52%. Southport have failed to score in three of their last five, while Alfreton have blanked twice in the same span.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Alfreton Town vs Southport?
Under 2.5 goals is given a 59% probability, supported by both teams' recent scoring rates (Alfreton 1.0, Southport 0.6 per game) and six of the last ten H2Hs finishing under this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Alfreton Town vs Southport: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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