Chorley vs Buxton Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Chorley
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Buxton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Buxton Win
Recommended Bets: Chorley vs Buxton
Chorley vs Buxton: Match Preview
Chorley enter this FA Trophy tie on the back of a patchy run, having lost three of their last five matches and scoring just six goals in that stretch. Their only win came away at Radcliffe, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of five. Buxton, by contrast, are riding a three-match winning streak, netting 10 goals in that span and conceding only two in their last two outings. The recent league meeting saw Buxton claim a 3-2 win at Victory Park, underlining their current edge in this matchup.
Statistically, this fixture profiles as open and attack-minded. Chorley are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Buxton's attack is more potent at 2.4 goals per game, also conceding 1.4. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring encounters, with BTTS occurring in five of their last ten combined fixtures and seven of the last nine head-to-heads seeing over 2.5 goals. Buxton's second-half output is notable, with eight of their last twelve goals coming after the break, suggesting late drama is likely.
The model expects Buxton's superior recent attacking form and head-to-head dominance to tilt the balance, projecting a 2-1 away win. The lack of clean sheets and high BTTS rates reinforce the expectation of goals at both ends, though the absence of granular home/away data does introduce some uncertainty about Chorley's resilience at Victory Park.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chorley vs Buxton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chorley vs Buxton that most previews miss.
- 1Buxton have scored at least three goals in three of their last five matches, including back-to-back away wins.
- 2Seven of the last nine meetings between these sides have finished with over 2.5 goals.
- 3Buxton have outscored Chorley 8-6 in their last three head-to-heads at Victory Park.
Who do you think wins: Chorley vs Buxton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chorley vs Buxton(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Buxton Win
Buxton have won three straight and average 2.4 goals per game over their last five, while Chorley have lost three of five and conceded 1.4 per game. The head-to-head also favours Buxton with five wins in the last nine meetings, including a 3-2 away win just three weeks ago.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides are averaging 2.6 goals conceded per match combined over their last five, and seven of the last nine H2H meetings have seen at least three goals.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in five of the last nine H2H matches and both teams have scored in five of their last ten combined fixtures, with Buxton especially prolific in the second half.
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More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Chorley vs Buxton Prediction
Buxton arrive in sharper form and with a strong recent record over Chorley, but the goal rates on both sides suggest a competitive tie with chances for both. The underlying numbers point to a goal-rich contest, with Buxton's attack likely to edge it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Buxton averaging 2.4 goals scored per game in their last five matches, with a three-match winning streak.
Defence
- →Chorley have managed just one win in their last five, conceding 1.4 per game and failing to score twice.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: Buxton have won five of the last nine meetings, including two straight at Victory Park.
How Chorley and Buxton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chorley vs Buxton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Buxtonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chorley have struggled for consistency, with just one win and three defeats in their last five games, failing to score in two. Buxton, on the other hand, are in strong form with three consecutive wins, averaging 2.4 goals per game and only one recent defeat.
Chorley vs Buxton — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Chorley vs Buxton
Buxton have the upper hand in this rivalry, winning five of the last nine encounters and both of the last two at Chorley's ground. High-scoring contests are the norm, with seven of the last nine meetings producing over 2.5 goals.
Chorley vs Buxton Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Chorley wins
2
Draws
5
Buxton wins
Things to Watch: Chorley vs Buxton
- ⚠️No season-long home/away splits or full standings data available, limiting confidence in venue effect.
- ⚠️No current odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Absence of detailed shot and set-piece data restricts tactical depth.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chorley 1–2 BuxtonBuxton's recent scoring rate and head-to-head record make them the likelier winners in a fixture that regularly produces goals, with a 2-1 away victory the most probable outcome. The strongest data point is Buxton's 2.4 goals per game over their last five, but the lack of full season splits and home/away context for Chorley is the main risk to this projection.
Chorley vs Buxton: Common Questions
Who will win Chorley vs Buxton?
The model gives Buxton a 42% chance of victory compared to 26% for Chorley, with the draw at 32%. Buxton's three-match winning streak and recent 3-2 away win over Chorley tip the probabilities in their favour.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Buxton?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, reflecting that five of the last nine head-to-heads and three of Buxton's last five matches have seen goals at both ends.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Chorley vs Buxton?
Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% probability, supported by both teams' recent defensive records and the fact that seven of the last nine meetings have produced at least three goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chorley vs Buxton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chorley vs Buxton Resources
Chorley Predictions
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Buxton Predictions
All Buxton fixtures & tips
Chorley vs Buxton Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Chorley — next match predictions
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Buxton — next match predictions
FA Trophy Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results