Chorley vs Hereford Predictions
National League - North · England
Chorley
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Hereford
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Hereford Win
Recommended Bets: Chorley vs Hereford
Chorley vs Hereford: Match Preview
Hereford arrive at Victory Park sitting second in the table with 26 points from 13 matches, boasting the league's second-best goal difference (+16) and a formidable away record (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Chorley, 11th with 20 points, have been inconsistent but remain potent at home, scoring 16 in 7 home games despite a recent 2-3 loss to Buxton. Both sides have mixed recent form: Chorley (WLLDW) rebounded with a 3-0 win at Radcliffe, while Hereford (LWLDL) slipped at home to AFC Telford United in their last outing.
Statistically, this fixture matches Chorley's high-variance, high-scoring profile (1.77 scored, 1.62 conceded per game; 77% over 2.5 goals) against Hereford's defensive discipline (0.62 conceded per game, 46% clean sheets). Hereford's away attack (11 in 6) should test a Chorley defence that has managed just one clean sheet in the last five. H2H meetings at Victory Park have been open, with only one of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in three of those.
The model projects a match where Hereford's defensive structure contains Chorley's attack, while their own forward line exploits Chorley's defensive lapses. Most likely outcomes cluster around 1-2 and 1-1, with Hereford's superior away record and season-long rates giving them the edge. Expect a goal-rich contest, but Hereford's defensive ceiling makes a true shootout less likely than the raw Chorley numbers might suggest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chorley vs Hereford Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chorley vs Hereford that most previews miss.
- 1Chorley matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of 13 league games (77%), the highest rate in the division.
- 2Hereford have kept a clean sheet in 46% of league matches, including three away from home.
- 3Four of the last five H2H meetings at Victory Park have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Chorley vs Hereford?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Chorley vs Hereford(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Hereford Win
Hereford's away record (4W, 1D, 1L, 11 scored, 4 conceded) and season defensive rate (0.62 conceded per game, 46% clean sheets) outstrip Chorley's home output, making the away win the likeliest outcome on underlying rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Chorley matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 77% of league games, and H2H meetings at Victory Park have averaged 3.4 goals, pointing to an above-average goal environment.
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More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Chorley vs Hereford Prediction
Underlying rates point to a contest where Hereford's defensive solidity on the road meets a Chorley side whose matches are consistently open. Hereford's away record (4 wins from 6, just 4 conceded) is among the league's best, while Chorley at home combine strong scoring (16 in 7) with a leaky back line (12 conceded). Chorley's season average of 1.77 scored and 1.62 conceded per match, plus a league-high 77% over 2.5 goal rate, signal a high-variance team. Hereford, meanwhile, combine 1.85 goals scored per game with the league's second-best defensive record (0.62 conceded per match, 46% clean sheets). H2H history at Victory Park has favoured goals, with only one of the last five meetings here finishing under 2.5. Hereford's attack has been less prolific in recent weeks (last 5: 1.0 scored per game), but their away output (11 in 6) remains robust. The model expects Hereford's defensive structure to limit Chorley's attack, while their own forward line capitalises on Chorley's defensive lapses. The most likely scorelines cluster around 1-2 and 1-1, with the away side's superior rates and league position (2nd, +16 GD) tipping the balance. Goal volume should be above league average, but Hereford's defensive ceiling keeps the probability of a shootout in check.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Hereford have conceded just 4 goals in 6 away league matches (0.67 per game).
- →Hereford's season clean sheet rate is 46%, compared to Chorley's 15%.
Match Context
- →Chorley home matches average 4.0 total goals (16 for, 12 against in 7 games).
How Chorley and Hereford Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chorley vs Hereford Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Herefordlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Chorley have alternated wins and losses over their last five, with a notable 3-0 away win at Radcliffe but also a home defeat to Buxton and FA Cup exit to Worcester City. Hereford's recent form is patchy (LWLDL), with just one win in their last four league matches, but their away results remain strong and their defensive record is among the league's best.
Chorley vs Hereford — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 76.92% of games this season
Strengths
- +46.15% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chorley vs Hereford
Chorley have won three of the last five home meetings with Hereford, with goals flowing freely—four of those five produced at least three goals. Both teams have scored in six of the last ten encounters, and only two of the last ten finished goalless at half-time, highlighting an open H2H trend.
Chorley vs Hereford Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Chorley wins
2
Draws
3
Hereford wins
Things to Watch: Chorley vs Hereford
- ⚠️No corners, shots, or cards data is available for recent matches, limiting set-piece and discipline modelling.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is mixed, with small-sample volatility in last 5 match averages.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value assessment; all recommendations are probability-driven only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chorley 1–2 HerefordThe model predicts a 2-1 away win for Hereford, underpinned by their league-best defensive record (just 8 conceded in 13) and strong away form (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The main risk to this call is Chorley's ability to generate high-scoring home games, with their matches averaging 4.0 goals at Victory Park and a history of open contests between these sides.
Chorley vs Hereford: Common Questions
Who will win Chorley vs Hereford?
Hereford are the statistical favourites with a 43% win probability, driven by their strong away record (4 wins in 6) and league-best defensive numbers. Chorley have a 28% chance, with the draw at 29%.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Hereford?
There's a 56% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Chorley's 77% over 2.5 goal rate and three BTTS results in their last five, though Hereford's 46% clean sheet rate tempers that slightly.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Chorley vs Hereford?
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 59%, reflecting Chorley's high-scoring profile (4.0 goals per home game) and recent H2H trends at Victory Park, where four of the last five meetings have gone over.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chorley vs Hereford: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chorley vs Hereford Resources
Chorley Predictions
All Chorley fixtures & tips
Hereford Predictions
All Hereford fixtures & tips
Chorley vs Hereford Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Chorley vs Buxton
Chorley — next match predictions
Hereford vs Brackley Town
Hereford — next match predictions
National League - North Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results