Spalding United vs Hebburn Town Predictions

Spalding United PredictionsHebburn Town PredictionsNational League - NorthH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
National League - NorthNational League - North · England
high confidence
Spalding United

Spalding United

AI Predicted Score

2 - 1

Hebburn Town

Hebburn Town

🗓️ Tuesday, 17 Nov 2026 at 19:45 GMT (venue time) · 19:45 UTC (your time)

Win Probability (1X2)

Spalding United 41%Draw 32%Hebburn Town 27%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Spalding United vs Hebburn Town

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10
Match Result: Spalding United Win
6/10

Spalding United vs Hebburn Town: Match Preview

Spalding United and Hebburn Town arrive separated by a single point in the National League North table, with both sides having won five of their opening ten matches. Spalding's recent form string of WDLWW includes a 4-0 home cup win and a strong run at home (3W-1D-1L), while Hebburn have stumbled on the road, collecting just one win and conceding 11 in five away league outings. Both are in the playoff mix, so the stakes are high for maintaining momentum.

Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Hebburn's open games: their league matches average 3.2 total goals, and they've seen both teams score in all of their last five. Spalding, by contrast, have kept things tighter at home, averaging just 0.6 goals conceded per home match. The key dynamic is Spalding's measured attack (1.4 goals per game, 30% clean sheet rate) against a Hebburn defence that has kept just one clean sheet all season. First-half goals are common for both, but Hebburn's away defence is particularly vulnerable early.

The model expects a higher-than-average goal count, with Spalding's home edge and Hebburn's attacking intent likely to produce a 2-1 or 2-2 type scoreline. The probability distribution gives Spalding a narrow edge due to their defensive consistency at home, but Hebburn's attack is strong enough to keep the contest open, especially if Spalding's recent attacking efficiency continues.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Spalding United1.65

Expected goals · model says 1.65

Hebburn Town1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Win Probability
Spalding United 45% Draw 24% Hebburn Town 31%

Over 2.5 Goals

58%

BTTS: Yes

60%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Spalding United vs Hebburn Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
41%
32%
27%
Spalding United 41%Draw 32%Hebburn Town 27%
Both Teams to Score
61%
39%
Yes 61%No 39%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
59%
41%
Over 2.5 59%Under 2.5 41%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Spalding United vs Hebburn Town that most previews miss.

  • 1Hebburn Town's away matches average 3.2 goals per game, with 80% finishing over 2.5 goals.
  • 2Spalding United have conceded only 3 goals in 5 home league matches this season.
  • 3Both teams have scored in 100% of Hebburn's last five league fixtures.

Who do you think wins: Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Spalding United vs Hebburn Town Prediction

This is a contest between two sides with similar points tallies but contrasting defensive profiles, with Spalding United's home solidity facing Hebburn Town's high-scoring, leaky away form. The underlying scoring and concession rates point to a game with above-average goal potential, especially given Hebburn's 1.6 goals scored and conceded per game. Spalding's home defensive record (0.6 conceded per home game) is a key anchor, but Hebburn's attack is likely to test that, making both teams to score and over 2.5 goals plausible outcomes.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Spalding United's home defensive record: only 3 goals conceded in 5 home league games.
  • →Hebburn Town have conceded 11 goals in 5 away matches, the joint-most among the top half.

Match Context

  • →Both teams have scored in all of Hebburn's last 5 league matches.

How Spalding United and Hebburn Town Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Spalding United vs Hebburn Town Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.

Spalding UnitedSpalding Unitedlast 5 matches
Dan Jarvis
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

B. Cybulski
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

D. Barton
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

D. Jarvis
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Hebburn TownHebburn Townlast 5 matches
L. Murray
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

E. Forbes
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

T. Allan
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Spalding United have taken 10 points from their last five matches in all competitions, including a 4-0 home win in the FA Cup, and have not failed to score in any of those games. Hebburn Town's recent form is more mixed, with just one win in their last five and a concerning defensive record away from home, conceding five at Radcliffe and four in an FA Cup exit.

Spalding United vs Hebburn Town — Last 10 Matches

Spalding UnitedSpalding UnitedLast 10 results
L0-1
L1-2
W2-1
W3-1
W2-0
D1-1
W3-1
L0-1
D0-0
L0-1
L@ Marine0-1
L@ Chorley1-2
Wvs Bedford Town2-1
W@ Spennymoor Town3-1
Wvs Southport2-0
D@ South Shields1-1
Wvs Worksop Town3-1
L@ Chester0-1
Dvs Macclesfield0-0
Lvs Oxford City0-1
Hebburn TownHebburn TownLast 10 results
L0-2
L0-3
D1-1
W2-1
L1-5
D1-1
L0-3
W4-2
W2-1
W1-0
Lvs Scarborough Athletic0-2
Lvs Oxford City0-3
D@ Darlington 18831-1
Wvs Hednesford Town2-1
L@ Radcliffe1-5
Dvs Chester1-1
L@ Macclesfield0-3
Wvs King's Lynn Town4-2
W@ Buxton2-1
Wvs Worksop Town1-0

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
  • −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches

Things to Watch: Spalding United vs Hebburn Town

  • ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams at this level; model relies on season rates.
  • ⚠️Lack of detailed shot and possession data for most matches reduces tactical granularity.
  • ⚠️Bookmaker odds unavailable, so value edges cannot be precisely calculated.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Spalding United 2–1 Hebburn Town

The model projects a 2-1 win for Spalding United, anchored by their strong home defensive record (0.6 conceded per home game) and Hebburn Town's struggles away from home (11 conceded in 5). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Hebburn's attack, which averages 1.6 goals per game, overcomes Spalding's defensive structure and turns the match into a high-scoring draw.

Spalding United vs Hebburn Town: Common Questions

Who will win Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

Spalding United are given a 41% probability to win, compared to 27% for Hebburn Town and 32% for the draw. The home side's defensive record at home slightly tips the balance in their favour.

Will both teams score in Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

The probability for both teams to score is 61%, reflecting that both sides have scored in every one of their last five matches and Hebburn's away games are consistently open.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

There is a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Hebburn Town's high-scoring games (60% over 2.5 this season) and both teams' positive scoring rates.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Spalding United vs Hebburn Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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