Bedford Town vs Chesham United Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Bedford Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Chesham United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Bedford Town vs Chesham United
Bedford Town vs Chesham United: Match Preview
Bedford Town come into this FA Trophy tie with a mixed recent record, posting two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five matches. Their attack has struggled to find consistency, scoring just twice across those five games, and they have failed to score in three of them. Chesham United's recent form is even more concerning, with no wins in their last five (three losses, two draws) and a defence that has conceded 13 goals in that span, including a heavy 0-5 defeat.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and defensive frailty. Bedford's shot and on-target averages (1.6 and 0.4 per game) are among the lowest in the sample, while Chesham's concession rate of 2.6 goals per game is offset by their own struggles in front of goal (0.8 per game). Both teams have seen three of their last five matches end with at least one side failing to score, and the BTTS rate is low. Set piece threat is minimal, with corners per game well below typical averages, and discipline has not been a major factor.
With neither side showing a clear edge in form or attacking efficiency, the model projects a low-event match likely to be decided by a single moment or to end level. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, reflecting the lack of firepower and the tendency for both teams to keep games tight, especially in knockout scenarios. Defensive lapses, particularly from Chesham, could tip the balance, but the underlying rates point to a draw.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bedford Town vs Chesham United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bedford Town vs Chesham United that most previews miss.
- 1Bedford Town have averaged just 1.6 shots and 0.4 shots on target per game across their last five matches.
- 2Chesham United have conceded 2.6 goals per game in their last five, but have also failed to score in three of those fixtures.
- 3Only 3 of the last 10 combined matches for these sides have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Bedford Town vs Chesham United(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have struggled for goals recently, with Bedford Town averaging just 0.6 and Chesham United 0.8 goals per game over their last five, while three of Bedford's last five and three of Chesham's last five have seen at least one side fail to score.
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The Case For This Bedford Town vs Chesham United Prediction
A low-scoring contest is projected at The Eyrie, with both Bedford Town and Chesham United entering off patchy form and limited attacking output. Bedford have managed just two goals in their last five outings, while Chesham have only fared marginally better with four, but have also conceded heavily of late. The underlying rates point to a cautious, attritional tie with little to separate the teams. Statistically, neither side has demonstrated sustained attacking threat: Bedford's last five average just 1.6 shots and 0.4 shots on target per game, while Chesham's figures are only slightly higher at 2.4 and 0.8 respectively. Defensive solidity is also in question, particularly for Chesham, who have shipped 2.6 goals per game across their last five, including a five-goal defeat. However, both teams have failed to score in three of their last five, and clean sheets remain rare, suggesting a high likelihood of a low-scoring draw or a single-goal margin. Given the lack of head-to-head data and no clear home or away dominance, the model expects a tight, risk-averse affair. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with the strongest statistical anchor being both sides' recent inability to convert chances and a combined BTTS rate of just 30% across their last ten matches. The main risk lies in Chesham's defensive volatility, which could open the door for a late winner either way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bedford Town have scored just 0.6 goals per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Chesham United have conceded 2.6 goals per game in the same span but have also failed to score in three of five.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a combined BTTS count of only 3 in their last 10 matches.
🚩 Bedford Town vs Chesham United Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Bedford Town and 4 for Chesham United, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
How Bedford Town and Chesham United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bedford Town vs Chesham United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Bedford Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bedford Town have alternated between wins and losses in their last five, but their attack has been notably blunt, failing to score in three of those matches. Chesham United enter without a win in five, conceding heavily and scoring just four goals in total, suggesting a side lacking both confidence and defensive solidity.
Bedford Town vs Chesham United — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Things to Watch: Bedford Town vs Chesham United
- ⚠️No season-long or home/away split data is available for either side, limiting confidence in baseline rates.
- ⚠️No head-to-head data exists to inform matchup or historical goal patterns.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are not available, so no value edge can be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bedford Town 1–1 Chesham UnitedThe model calls a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' low recent scoring rates and a combined BTTS rate of just 30%. The likeliest way this projection fails is if Chesham's leaky defence, which has conceded 13 in five, collapses again and allows Bedford to edge a narrow win.
Bedford Town vs Chesham United: Common Questions
Who will win Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
The model estimates a 35% chance of a Bedford Town win, 36% for a draw, and 29% for Chesham United, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw given both sides' recent form and low scoring rates.
Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
Both teams to score is rated at 41%, with neither side scoring in three of their last five matches; the data points to a higher chance of at least one side failing to find the net.
How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62%, reflecting the low attacking output of both teams and a combined average of just 1.4 goals scored per game in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bedford Town vs Chesham United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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