Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Merthyr Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Harborough Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Harborough Town Win
Recommended Bets: Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town: Match Preview
Merthyr Town enter this FA Trophy tie on a five-match winless run, drawing three and losing two, with defensive issues prominent—11 goals conceded in that span. Harborough Town, meanwhile, have found more stability, collecting two wins, two draws, and a single defeat in their last five, including a 3-1 FA Cup win where they registered 21 shots and 10 on target, suggesting a more potent attack. With both sides operating at a similar goals scored rate (1.2 per game), the main difference lies in their defensive records.
Statistically, Merthyr's back line has been porous, conceding 2.2 per game and failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Harborough's defence has been tighter, allowing just 1.2 per game, and they have shown the ability to control matches at home and away. Both teams have seen BTTS land frequently—four times in Merthyr's last five, three in Harborough's—indicating a high likelihood of goals at both ends. The lack of available set-piece or discipline data restricts deeper analysis on those fronts, but the shot and goal rates point towards an open contest.
Given these recent trends, the model expects Harborough Town's more balanced profile to give them the edge, especially against a Merthyr side that has struggled to contain opponents. The most probable scenario is a competitive match with both sides scoring, but Harborough's superior defensive numbers and recent attacking output suggest a 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town that most previews miss.
- 1Merthyr Town have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding at least once in every game.
- 2BTTS has landed in seven of the last ten combined matches for these two sides.
- 3Harborough Town's only defeat in the last five came away, but they managed to score in four of those matches.
Who do you think wins: Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Harborough Town Win
Harborough Town have conceded just 1.2 goals per game over their last five, compared to Merthyr Town's 2.2, and have two wins in that stretch while Merthyr have none. The away side's higher recent shot and goal output tips the balance.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game over their last five, with Merthyr conceding heavily (2.2 per game). Four of Merthyr's last five have seen both teams score, supporting the over.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in four of Merthyr's last five and three of Harborough's, with both sides failing to score just once in that span.
More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Prediction
Merthyr Town's defensive frailties have left them winless in their last five, conceding 11 goals in that stretch, while Harborough Town arrive with a more balanced recent record and a sharper attack. Both teams tend to find the net but struggle for clean sheets, pointing towards a match with scoring opportunities at both ends. The away side's marginally better defensive numbers and recent cup win suggest they have the edge in a fixture likely to be decided by efficiency in front of goal.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Merthyr Town have conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last five matches, with no clean sheets.
- →Harborough Town have scored in four of their last five and kept one clean sheet.
Match Context
- →BTTS has landed in seven of the last ten combined matches for these sides.
🚩 Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Merthyr Town and 6 for Harborough Town, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Merthyr Town and Harborough Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Merthyr Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Harborough Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Merthyr Town have struggled for results, failing to win any of their last five and conceding 11 goals in that period. In contrast, Harborough Town have picked up two wins and two draws, including an impressive 3-1 FA Cup victory, and have conceded just 1.2 goals per game over the same span.
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town
With bookmaker odds unavailable, direct value edges cannot be calculated. However, the model's highest conviction is in the away win and both teams to score markets, based on recent goal and concession rates. Any odds above 2.30 for Harborough Town or 1.80 for BTTS would likely represent value based on these probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town
- ⚠️No season-long or home/away split data is available for either team, limiting confidence in venue-based projections.
- ⚠️No head-to-head data exists between these clubs, so no historical matchup trends can be referenced.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Merthyr Town 1–2 Harborough TownThe model projects a 2-1 win for Harborough Town, with the decisive factor being Merthyr Town's defensive record—2.2 goals conceded per game and no clean sheets in five. The main risk is Harborough's own inconsistency away from home, which could allow Merthyr to capitalise if they find attacking rhythm.
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town: Common Questions
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Harborough Town are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 27% for Merthyr Town and 29% for the draw. The away side's more solid defence and recent attacking output give them the edge.
Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, supported by BTTS landing in four of Merthyr's last five and three of Harborough's last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
There is a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging 1.2 goals scored per game and Merthyr conceding heavily (2.2 per game) in recent matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Resources
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Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town Stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results