Londrina vs Nautico Recife Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Londrina
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Nautico Recife
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Londrina vs Nautico Recife: Match Preview
Londrina enter this fixture desperate for points, sitting 18th and having lost their last three matches, including a heavy 0-4 defeat to Botafogo SP. Their home form has offered little comfort, with just five wins from eighteen and a negative goal difference. Nautico Recife, 15th in the table, have also struggled for consistency, winning just once in their last five and scoring only one goal in that span. Both sides are under pressure: Londrina to avoid relegation, Nautico to secure mid-table safety.
The statistical shape of the match points to a low-scoring contest. Londrina's season average is 1.22 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, but their recent defensive record is worse (2.2 conceded per last five). Nautico's away defence has shipped 29 in 18, but their attack has collapsed—0.2 goals per game over the last five, failing to score in four. Both teams average over 12 shots per game, but shot quality and finishing are lacking. Set pieces could play a role, as both average over 5 corners and 12 fouls per game, with cards likely to be above average.
Given these rates, the model projects a tight, attritional match with limited clear chances. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting Londrina's marginal attacking edge at home and Nautico's defensive vulnerability, but also the visitors' bluntness up front. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, with BTTS close to a coin flip due to Londrina's defensive frailties.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Londrina vs Nautico Recife that most previews miss.
- 1Nautico Recife have failed to score in four of their last five matches, averaging just 0.2 goals per game in that stretch.
- 2Londrina's home matches have averaged 2.67 goals per game this season, but they've conceded 2.2 per game over their last five overall.
- 3Only two of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in a draw, but both teams have managed away wins in this fixture.
Who do you think wins: Londrina vs Nautico Recife?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Londrina vs Nautico Recife(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average between 1.1 and 1.2 goals scored per game and have struggled to consistently outscore their defensive frailties; the 1-1 has been the modal result in similar matchups and aligns with the home/away splits.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Londrina's home matches average 2.67 goals but Nautico Recife away games are at 2.72, yet both sides' recent attacking form is muted (Nautico just 1 goal in 5, Londrina 1.0 per game last 5), making a low total likely.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Londrina vs Nautico Recife Prediction
This is a meeting between two sides in the lower reaches of Serie B, each with a negative goal difference and recent form that has drifted away from their best. Londrina, sitting 18th, have lost three consecutive matches and are fighting relegation, while Nautico Recife, 15th, have only one win in their last five and have struggled for goals on their travels. The stakes are clear: Londrina need points to escape the drop zone, Nautico are seeking to consolidate safety. Statistically, the matchup is defined by Londrina's leaky defence (1.57 conceded per game, 21.6% clean sheets) against a Nautico attack that has dried up—just 0.2 goals per game in their last five, failing to score in four of those. Londrina's attack is marginally better at home (25 goals in 18 home games), but their recent output is also subdued. Both sides average over 12 shots per game, but conversion rates are poor. Nautico's away defence (29 conceded in 18) is vulnerable, but Londrina's attack lacks the cutting edge to fully exploit it. Corners and cards are both above league average, suggesting a scrappy encounter. The model expects a tight match with few clear chances, most likely decided by a single moment or settled at parity. The statistical distribution points to a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, with neither side in the form to dominate. The low BTTS rate for Nautico (0 in last 5) is offset by Londrina's defensive issues, keeping both teams to score in play but with a slight lean to the under.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Nautico have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Londrina have scored exactly once in three of their last five.
Defence
- →Londrina have conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last five, but Nautico have scored just once in that span.
Match Context
- →Both teams have negative goal differences and are in the bottom six of Serie B, with Londrina fighting relegation.
🚩 Londrina vs Nautico Recife Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Londrina and 5.2 for Nautico Recife, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Londrina and Nautico Recife Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Londrinalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nautico Recifelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Londrina have lost three straight and conceded nine goals in that span, underlining their defensive problems. Nautico Recife have only one win in their last five and have scored just once, failing to find the net in four matches. Both sides are trending downwards, with Londrina's relegation threat adding extra pressure.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
What History Says: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Londrina have the historical edge, winning six of the last ten meetings, but Nautico Recife took the most recent encounter 2-1 at home. Draws have been rare in this fixture, and both teams have managed to win away from home. Most matches have been closely contested, with narrow margins.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Londrina wins
2
Draws
2
Nautico Recife wins
Things to Watch: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown erratic form, increasing result volatility.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown and late injuries/suspensions could impact the balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Londrina 1–1 Nautico RecifeThe model calls a 1-1 draw, with the strongest data point being Nautico Recife's collapse in attack (one goal in five matches) against a Londrina defence conceding over two per game recently. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if Londrina's fragile back line gifts Nautico a rare attacking breakthrough or if the home side's desperation produces a late winner.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife: Common Questions
Who will win Londrina vs Nautico Recife?
The model gives Londrina a 35% chance to win, Nautico Recife a 27% chance, and the draw a 38% chance. Both teams are out of form, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Londrina vs Nautico Recife?
There's a 47% probability both teams score, reflecting Londrina's defensive issues but also Nautico's recent struggles in attack (just one goal in their last five).
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Londrina vs Nautico Recife?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 58%, as both sides have struggled to create and convert chances recently and Nautico have failed to score in four of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Londrina vs Nautico Recife: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.