Almeria vs FC Andorra Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Almeria
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
FC Andorra
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Almeria Win
Recommended Bets: Almeria vs FC Andorra
Almeria vs FC Andorra: Match Preview
Almeria enter this fixture in second place, unbeaten at home, and on a five-match unbeaten run (three wins, two draws). Their 26 points from 12 matches are underpinned by the division's second-best attack, and they have scored at least twice in four of their last five. FC Andorra, by contrast, sit 18th with just three wins and a negative goal difference, having conceded 22 times already.
The statistical matchup is lopsided: Almeria's home attack (2.5 goals per game, 14 shots, 5.2 on target) faces an Andorra away defence conceding 1.83 per match with only one away win. Andorra do carry some attacking threat (1.42 goals per game, 1.6 in the last five), but their defensive record and discipline (2.4 yellows, 0.4 reds per game recently) suggest they struggle under pressure. Both teams are above league average for over 2.5 goals and have a recent tendency for matches with both teams scoring.
The model expects Almeria to control possession and territory, generating more shots and corners, while Andorra look to exploit transitions. Given the scoring rates and recent patterns, a 2-1 or 2-0 home win is most probable, but Andorra's ability to score late (four goals after 80' in the last five) means a late response is plausible.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Almeria vs FC Andorra Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Almeria vs FC Andorra that most previews miss.
- 1Almeria have scored 15 goals in six home matches (2.5 per game), conceding just five.
- 2FC Andorra have kept only two clean sheets in their last ten league matches.
- 3Both previous H2H meetings produced at least three goals and BTTS.
Who do you think wins: Almeria vs FC Andorra?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Almeria vs FC Andorra(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Almeria Win
Almeria have won five of six at home (15 scored, 5 conceded) and face an Andorra side with just one away win and a season-long concession rate of 1.83 goals per game. The home win probability is modelled at 56% based on these rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Almeria 50%, Andorra 58%) and combine for 40 goals in 24 matches this season. The model puts the over at 54%.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Almeria vs FC Andorra Prediction
Statistically, this is a high-floor home favourite spot: Almeria's home record (5W 1D 0L, 2.5 goals scored per game) contrasts sharply with Andorra's away struggles (1W 2D 3L, 1.83 conceded per game). The scoring rates and shot volumes both point to a match played largely in Andorra's half, but with the visitors capable of contributing to the scoreline given their 17 goals in 12 matches. The most likely outcome is a narrow Almeria win with both sides getting on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Almeria average 2.5 goals scored per home match, conceding just 0.83 overall.
- →Andorra's away defence allows 1.83 goals per game with only one clean sheet in 12.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half their league matches.
🚩 Almeria vs FC Andorra Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Almeria and 4.8 for FC Andorra, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Almeria and FC Andorra Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Almeria vs FC Andorra Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Almerialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Andorralast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almeria come in unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws), with 12 goals scored in that stretch and no failures to score. FC Andorra have been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five league matches and a negative goal difference, though they have managed to score in four of those games.
Almeria vs FC Andorra — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Almeria vs FC Andorra
Almeria have won both previous encounters, including a 3-2 home win last season. Both matches featured at least three goals and saw both teams find the net, suggesting a tendency for open games between these sides.
Almeria vs FC Andorra Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Almeria wins
0
Draws
0
FC Andorra wins
Things to Watch: Almeria vs FC Andorra
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Small H2H sample (two matches) limits predictive power.
- ⚠️Almeria's recent draws suggest some defensive vulnerability despite strong home record.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Almeria 2–1 FC AndorraAlmeria are projected to win 2-1, driven by their 2.5 goals per home game and Andorra's away defensive record. The strongest data point is Almeria's unbeaten home record (5W 1D), but the main risk is Andorra's knack for late goals and Almeria's recent run of draws, which could open the door for a draw if the hosts fail to convert early dominance.
Almeria vs FC Andorra: Common Questions
Who will win Almeria vs FC Andorra?
Almeria are modelled as 56% likely to win, based on their unbeaten home record (5W 1D) and superior scoring rate. FC Andorra's away win probability is just 17% given their defensive numbers.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Almeria vs FC Andorra?
The model gives a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals, as both teams have seen at least three goals in over half their matches (Almeria 50%, Andorra 58%).
Are both teams likely to score in Almeria vs FC Andorra?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, as Almeria have seen BTTS in four of their last five and Andorra have scored in four of their last five away fixtures.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Almeria vs FC Andorra: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.