Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Tenerife
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
AD Ceuta FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+22% edge)
Recommended Bets: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC: Match Preview
Tenerife approach this fixture sitting 14th in the table, having drawn each of their last four league matches. Their season has been defined by narrow margins, with six draws from twelve and a goal difference of -2. Ceuta, meanwhile, are rooted to the bottom with just five points from thirteen matches, winless away from home and on a five-game losing streak in the league.
The statistical matchup is lopsided: Tenerife's home defence allows just 0.83 goals per game, while Ceuta's away attack has managed only four goals in six road games. Ceuta's overall defensive record is the worst in the division, conceding 2.31 per match and 3.00 per away game. Set-piece data points to a likely high-corners contest (Tenerife 4.6, Ceuta 7.0 per game last 5), and both sides average over three bookings per match, suggesting a combative midfield battle. Notably, Tenerife have scored in every one of their last five, while Ceuta have failed to score in two of their last five league outings.
Given Ceuta's chronic defensive issues and Tenerife's ability to find the net at home, the model expects the hosts to control the game, limiting Ceuta's chances and capitalising on their visitors' frailties. The most probable outcome is a low-scoring home win, with BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 goals both strong statistical runners. Ceuta's high recent shot volume is a minor caveat, but their finishing rate and defensive record are decisive.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC that most previews miss.
- 1Ceuta's away matches average 3.67 goals per game (22 goals in 6), the highest goal environment in the league.
- 2Tenerife have seen both teams score in all of their last 5 league matches, but Ceuta have failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
- 3Ceuta's last 5 league games have produced an average of 7 corners per match for them, despite poor results.
Who do you think wins: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.8
Ceuta have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and average just 0.77 goals per game this season, while Tenerife have not failed to score in any of their last 5 but have kept 16.7% clean sheets overall. With Ceuta's away attack producing only 4 goals in 6 away matches and Tenerife conceding under a goal per home game, the model gives BTTS 'no' a 68% probability versus odds-implied 56%.
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Match Result: Tenerife Win@ 1.8
Tenerife's home record (2W 3D 1L, 7:5 GF:GA) is solid compared to Ceuta's away record (0W 1D 5L, 4:18 GF:GA), and Ceuta have lost 10 of 13 overall, conceding 2.31 per game. The model's 58% home win probability is slightly above the odds-implied 56%.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Tenerife's defensive solidity at home and Ceuta's chronic away struggles point to a low-scoring match where the hosts are well positioned to control proceedings. The underlying rate data highlights a clear gap in both attacking output and defensive resilience, with Ceuta's concession rate on the road especially stark. Unless Tenerife's recent run of draws masks a deeper attacking issue, the hosts' statistical edge should translate into a routine win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Tenerife are unbeaten in their last 4 home games and have scored in every one of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Ceuta's attack averages just 0.77 goals per game overall and 0.67 away, with 2 blanks in their last 5.
Defence
- →Ceuta have conceded 18 goals in 6 away matches (3.00 per game), the worst away defence in the division.
🚩 Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Tenerife and 6 for AD Ceuta FC, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Tenerife and AD Ceuta FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tenerifelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tenerife have drawn each of their last four league matches, consistently finding the net but struggling to convert performances into wins. Their last five have seen them score seven and concede eight, with no clean sheets. Ceuta, by contrast, are in freefall, losing four of their last five league games and conceding 11 goals in that span, with only three scored.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
The strongest value edge lies with both teams to score 'no', where the model's 68% probability is well above the odds-implied 56%. The home win also shows a modest edge at current odds, reflecting Ceuta's extreme away weakness. No value is found on the away or draw selections given the underlying rates.
Odds from 1xBet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams at this level.
- ⚠️Tenerife's run of 4 consecutive draws suggests some attacking inefficiency despite regular scoring.
- ⚠️Ceuta's high shot volume in recent matches (15.4 per game last 5) could eventually yield more goals than their conversion rate suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tenerife 2–0 AD Ceuta FCThe model projects a 2-0 win for Tenerife, anchored by Ceuta's league-worst away defence (18 conceded in 6) and their own consistent, if unspectacular, home output. The strongest data point is Ceuta's 0% away win and clean sheet rate. The main risk is Tenerife's tendency to draw matches and Ceuta's recent increase in shot volume, but the underlying rates make a home win and Ceuta failing to score the most likely scenario.
Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC: Common Questions
Who will win Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC?
The model gives Tenerife a 58% chance of victory, with a draw at 28% and Ceuta just 14%. This is based on Tenerife's solid home record and Ceuta's winless, porous away form.
Will both teams score in Tenerife vs Ceuta?
Both teams to score 'no' is favoured at 68%, as Ceuta average just 0.77 goals per game and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, while Tenerife's home defence is relatively solid.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Tenerife vs Ceuta?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more likely at 54%, despite Ceuta's high concession rate, because Tenerife's matches tend to be lower scoring and their attack is not prolific.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tenerife vs AD Ceuta FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.