Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Raków Częstochowa
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Lechia Gdansk
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.67(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk: Match Preview
Raków Częstochowa approach this friendly in strong scoring form, having netted 11 goals in their last five matches and carrying a two-game winning streak. Their home record is formidable, with six wins and three draws from nine this season, and they have not failed to score in any of their last five. Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last five and conceding 12 goals in that stretch, including a heavy 0-6 defeat in the cup.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards goals. Raków's matches average 4.2 total goals over the last five, and their over 2.5 goal rate sits at 61.5% for the season. Lechia's season over 2.5 rate is even higher at 75%, but their defensive record is a concern, with just a 12.5% clean sheet rate and 2.4 goals conceded per game in the last five. Raków's attack, averaging 17.4 shots and 6.2 on target per match recently, contrasts with Lechia's lack of available shot data, but the away side have failed to score in two of their last five, indicating some bluntness up front.
The model projects a game shaped by Raków's home attacking output and Lechia's defensive vulnerability. Given the H2H dominance (Raków 8 wins in last 10) and both teams' high-scoring tendencies, a 2-1 or 2-0 result for the hosts is most probable, with the likeliest deviation coming from unpredictable friendly lineups or a rare defensive improvement from Lechia.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk that most previews miss.
- 1Raków have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, but have scored in every match, with both teams scoring in all five.
- 2Lechia's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of their season fixtures, the highest rate between the two sides.
- 3Eight of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Raków, with no draws in that span.
Who do you think wins: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.67
Both teams have high over 2.5 rates this season (Raków 61.5%, Lechia 75%), and Raków's last five matches average 4.2 total goals. The model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5, slightly above the implied probability from the odds.
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Match Result: Raków Częstochowa Win@ 2.12
Raków are unbeaten at home this season (6W, 3D, 0L) and have dominated the H2H (8 wins in last 10), but the edge over the market is marginal.
Read more ↓
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The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction
This fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest, with Raków Częstochowa's offensive output (2.23 goals per game) and Lechia Gdansk's defensive frailties (1.88 conceded per game) setting the statistical tone. Both sides' recent form has featured frequent goal action and little defensive solidity, with neither keeping a clean sheet in their last five. Raków's attack is particularly potent at home, averaging 2.44 goals per home match, while Lechia's away defence is untested but has allowed just one goal in their single away league fixture. Both teams' over 2.5 goal rates are high (Raków 61.5%, Lechia 75%), and Raków's matches have seen both teams score in all of their last five. Set-piece metrics are less clear due to missing data for Lechia, but Raków average 4.6 corners per game in their last five and 1.8 yellow cards, suggesting moderate set-piece and disciplinary activity. Given the attacking rates and H2H record (Raków have won 8 of the last 10 meetings), the model expects Raków to edge a game with multiple goals, likely decided by their superior shot volume and home scoring rate. The likeliest scenario is a 2-1 or 2-0 home win, with Lechia's inconsistent attack capable of contributing but less likely to dictate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Raków are unbeaten at home this season (6W, 3D, 0L) and have won 8 of the last 10 H2H meetings.
Attack
- →Raków average 2.23 goals scored per match this season, with 61.5% of games over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Lechia Gdansk concede 1.88 goals per match and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five.
🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 5 for Lechia Gdansk, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Raków Częstochowa and Lechia Gdansk Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lechia Gdansklast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Raków Częstochowa have won three of their last five, scoring 11 goals and conceding 10, with a current two-match winning streak. Lechia Gdansk's recent form is patchier, with two wins and three losses in their last five, including a 0-6 cup defeat and two matches where they failed to score.
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
Raków have won eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings, including each of the last three at home. No draws have occurred in this fixture in the last ten, and the most common outcome is a Raków win by one or two goals. Both teams have scored in four of the last five encounters.
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Raków Częstochowa wins
0
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
The model's strongest value edge is on over 2.5 goals, where the 62% model probability slightly exceeds the market's implied 60% (odds 1.67). The 1x2 market is closely aligned, with only a marginal negative edge for the home win at current odds. Both teams to score is fairly priced, with no significant edge either way.
Odds from 1xBet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
- ⚠️Lechia Gdansk's recent match data lacks shot and possession statistics, increasing uncertainty on their attacking and defensive efficiency.
- ⚠️As a friendly, motivation and lineups could be experimental, impacting both intensity and goal expectation.
- ⚠️No current league standings or detailed squad news available; model relies on season averages and recent results.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Lechia GdanskThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Raków Częstochowa, anchored by their 2.23 goals per game average and unbeaten home record. The strongest data point is Raków's historical dominance in this fixture (eight wins in ten H2H), but the main risk lies in the unpredictable nature of friendlies and Lechia's potential to exploit defensive lapses, especially if Raków rotate heavily.
Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk: Common Questions
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Raków Częstochowa are favoured by the model with a 46% win probability, compared to 25% for Lechia Gdansk and 29% for the draw. This is supported by Raków's unbeaten home record and dominance in the head-to-head.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
There is a 62% model probability for over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' high-scoring rates this season (Raków 61.5%, Lechia 75%) and recent matches averaging over 3.5 total goals.
Is both teams to score (BTTS) likely in Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?
Yes, the model gives a 61% chance of both teams scoring, with Raków involved in five straight BTTS matches and Lechia keeping no clean sheets in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Resources
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Raków Częstochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Stats
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Model Accuracy
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