Bromley vs Notts County Predictions
League One · England
Bromley
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Notts County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Notts County Win
@ 2.2(+10% edge)
Recommended Bets: Bromley vs Notts County
Bromley vs Notts County: Match Preview
Bromley’s season is spiralling, with just two wins from thirteen and a run of four defeats in their last five leaving them bottom of League One. Their recent form string of LLDLL reflects a side struggling for confidence, particularly at home where they’ve managed only four goals in six matches. Notts County, by contrast, have found some rhythm, collecting three wins and a draw in their last five and climbing clear of immediate relegation danger.
Statistically, this is a clash of trajectories: Bromley’s defence is the league’s leakiest, conceding 2.6 per game over the last five and 14 at home all season, while Notts County have tightened up, conceding just 0.8 per game in their last five. The visitors’ attack is clicking into gear, averaging 14.6 shots and 2 goals per game recently, and their set-piece threat is growing with five corners per match. Bromley’s discipline is also a concern, with 2.4 yellows per game in their last five, and they’ve failed to keep a single clean sheet in that period.
Given these dynamics, the model expects Notts County’s momentum to prove decisive, with their attack likely to capitalise on Bromley’s defensive frailties. While Bromley’s history of drawing with Notts County adds a note of caution, the visitors’ current form and sharper edge in both boxes suggest they are well placed to take all three points in a match likely to see multiple goals.
How Bromley and Notts County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bromley vs Notts County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bromleylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bromley’s recent form is bleak, with four defeats and a draw in their last five and 13 goals conceded, including heavy losses to Leicester and MK Dons. Notts County, meanwhile, are trending upward, winning three of their last five and doubling their season scoring rate during this run, capped by a 2-0 away win at Mansfield.
Bromley vs Notts County — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Bromley vs Notts County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bromley vs Notts County that most previews miss.
- 1Bromley have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding multiple goals in four of those matches.
- 2Notts County have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game, a marked improvement on their season average.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, but Notts County have not lost at Hayes Lane since 2021.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Bromley vs Notts County?
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The Case For This Bromley vs Notts County Prediction
Bromley enter this fixture rooted to the foot of League One, winless in their last five and leaking goals at an alarming rate, while Notts County have found a spark, picking up three wins and a draw in their last five and doubling their scoring output compared to earlier in the season. The contrast in momentum is stark: Bromley’s defensive woes have deepened, conceding 13 in their last five, while Notts County have conceded just four in the same span, including two clean sheets. The tactical matchup is defined by Bromley’s porous defence and Notts County’s recent attacking surge. Notts are averaging 14.6 shots and 4.6 on target per game in their last five, while Bromley’s home record is the worst in the division (four goals scored, 14 conceded in six games). Set pieces could play a role, with both sides averaging close to four corners per game, but Bromley’s lack of discipline (2.4 yellows per game in their last five) may also prove costly. Both teams tend to start quickly, combining for eight first-half goals in their last five matches each. Given the current trajectories, the model expects Notts County’s form to carry them through, with their attack likely to exploit Bromley’s defensive chaos. While Bromley have shown some fight in recent home draws, the visitors’ sharper edge and upward momentum should see them edge a contest likely to feature goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Notts County have won three of their last five and are averaging 2 goals per game in that period.
Defence
- →Bromley have lost four of their last five, conceding 13 goals in that stretch.
Match Context
- →Bromley have managed just one win and four goals in six home matches this season.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bromley vs Notts County(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Notts County Win@ 2.21
Notts County arrive with clear upward momentum, averaging 2 goals per game and just 0.8 conceded over their last five, while Bromley have lost four of five and conceded 13 in that stretch. The visitors’ improved shot volume (14.6 per game) and Bromley’s defensive frailty at Hayes Lane (14 conceded in 6 home matches) tilt the value towards the away win.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.8
Bromley’s matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of league games and they are conceding an average of 2.6 per game in their last five; Notts County’s attack is trending up, suggesting a strong possibility of three or more goals.
Read more ↓
More League One Predictions
🚩 Bromley vs Notts County Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Bromley and 4.2 for Notts County, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
What History Says: Bromley vs Notts County
The head-to-head record is remarkably even, with seven draws in the last ten meetings and only one Notts County away win in that time. Recent encounters at Hayes Lane have ended level, with the last three all finishing 1-1 or 2-2, suggesting a history of close contests.
Bromley vs Notts County Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Bromley wins
7
Draws
1
Notts County wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bromley vs Notts County
The model sees the biggest value on the away win, with a 10% edge over bookmaker odds (model: 50%, odds-implied: 45%). There’s also a small positive edge on over 2.5 goals, reflecting Bromley’s high-scoring matches and Notts County’s improved attack. The market may be underestimating the impact of Bromley’s current defensive collapse.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bromley vs Notts County
- ⚠️Bromley’s home matches have produced a high rate of draws in the H2H (7 in last 10), tempering confidence in the away win.
- ⚠️Notts County’s away record this season is modest (1 win in 6), suggesting some risk in backing them outright.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed for either side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bromley 1–2 Notts CountyThe model calls this 2-1 to Notts County, with the single strongest data point being Bromley’s collapse at the back — 13 conceded in five games and just one home win all season. The main risk is the H2H trend of draws between these sides, but the visitors’ clear upward momentum and Bromley’s defensive chaos make the away win the likelier outcome.
Bromley vs Notts County: Common Questions
Who will win Bromley vs Notts County?
Notts County are favoured with a 50% probability of victory, compared to just 21% for Bromley and 29% for the draw. The visitors’ recent form and Bromley’s defensive frailty tip the balance towards an away win.
Will both teams score in Bromley vs Notts County?
There’s a 55% chance of both teams finding the net, with Bromley having scored in three of their last five and Notts County averaging 2 goals per game recently. However, Bromley’s lack of attacking output at home tempers confidence slightly.
Can Notts County’s strong run continue?
Notts County have taken 10 points from their last five matches, scoring two or more in four of those. Their attack is in the best form of the season, and with Bromley conceding heavily, the visitors are well placed to extend their positive streak.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bromley vs Notts County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.