Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Fortaleza EC
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Vila Nova
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: Match Preview
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova approach this fixture with promotion in sight, separated by just a point and both entrenched in the top five. Fortaleza’s recent form is steady but unspectacular, with three draws and two wins in their last five, while Vila Nova have mirrored that with one win, three draws, and a loss. Both sides have shown a tendency to share points, as their season tallies of 14 and 9 draws respectively indicate.
The statistical profile of this matchup is shaped by defensive solidity and moderate attacking output. Fortaleza average 1.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match, with a strong home defensive record (16 goals conceded in 18 home games). Vila Nova, while more prolific overall, have struggled to replicate their home scoring away, netting just 17 in 18 away matches and conceding 23. Both teams’ matches go under 2.5 goals more than 60% of the time, and their last 5 match averages (Fortaleza: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded; Vila Nova: 1.6 scored, 1.4 conceded) suggest little to separate them.
The model projects a tightly contested, low-scoring affair, with a draw the most probable outcome. Both teams’ defensive records and lack of late-season attacking surges point to a 1-1 or 1-0 either way, with set pieces (corners) and discipline (cards) likely to be above average due to both sides’ physical styles and high stakes.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova that most previews miss.
- 1Fortaleza have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, conceding just 4 goals in that span.
- 2Vila Nova’s away matches average just 2.22 total goals, with 10 of 18 finishing under 2.5.
- 3Both teams combine for an average of 12 corners per game over their last 5 matches.
Who do you think wins: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored per game and concede at similar rates, with draws featuring heavily in recent form (Fortaleza: 14 draws in 36, Vila Nova: 9 draws), making 1-1 the modal outcome given the underlying rates.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Season over 2.5 goal percentages are low for both teams (Fortaleza 36%, Vila Nova 39%), and both are in the league’s top five for clean sheet rates, supporting a low-scoring expectation.
Read more ↓
Corners: Over 10.5
Combined last 5 match averages yield 12 corners per game, and both teams have recently posted high single-match totals (Fortaleza: 7, 9, 6; Vila Nova: 9, 3, 6, 4, 8), indicating a likely high set-piece count.
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Prediction
Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova enter this contest separated by a single point and both with promotion ambitions, but neither side has shown the cutting edge to break out of a congested top five. Fortaleza’s home record (9W, 8D, 1L) is among the league’s most resilient, while Vila Nova’s away form (6W, 4D, 8L) is more erratic but underpinned by a higher scoring rate overall. Statistically, both teams are defined by balance rather than extremes. Fortaleza average 1.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match, with a 44% clean sheet rate and just 36% of games going over 2.5 goals. Vila Nova are more open (1.44 scored, 1.06 conceded per match), but away from home they net just 0.94 per game and concede 1.28. Recent form for both is draw-heavy, and the last five matches show neither side consistently outshooting or outscoring their opposition. Given these underlying rates, the model expects a controlled, cautious contest with neither team likely to dominate. The modal outcome is a low-scoring draw, with both sides’ defensive records and lack of late-season attacking surges pointing to a 1-1 or 1-0 either way. Corners and cards should be above league average, but goals are likely to be at a premium.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Fortaleza have drawn 8 of 18 home matches and conceded just 16 home goals all season.
- →Vila Nova’s away attack averages less than 1 goal per game (17 in 18), while conceding 1.28 per away match.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in over 60% of their league matches.
🚩 Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Fortaleza EC and 4.4 for Vila Nova, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fortaleza EClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Novalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last five (2W, 3D), with a recent run of low-scoring draws and strong defensive performances (three clean sheets). Vila Nova’s last five have produced one win, three draws, and one loss, with goals at both ends but no consistent attacking surge. Both teams’ recent results reinforce their season-long trend toward tight, competitive matches.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
What History Says: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
In the last five meetings, Fortaleza have two home wins and two draws, while Vila Nova’s only win came at home earlier this season. Scorelines have been tight, with two 0-0 draws and only one match in the last five producing more than two goals. The H2H history supports the statistical expectation of a low-scoring, evenly matched contest.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Fortaleza EC wins
2
Draws
1
Vila Nova wins
Things to Watch: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams have a high draw rate, increasing variance in 1X2 outcomes.
- ⚠️Recent H2H data is sparse, with only one meeting in the last eight years.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fortaleza EC 1–1 Vila NovaA 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, driven by both teams’ high draw rates (Fortaleza: 14/36, Vila Nova: 9/36) and low over 2.5 goal percentages. The biggest risk to this projection is Vila Nova’s slightly more open approach on the road, which could tilt the balance if either side capitalises on an early lead.
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: Common Questions
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
The model gives Fortaleza a 38% chance to win, Vila Nova a 27% chance, and a draw 35%. Both teams have high draw rates and similar defensive records, making a draw the most probable outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
There is a 63% probability of under 2.5 goals, with both teams’ matches going under that line in more than 60% of their league games this season.
What is the most likely correct score for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 21% probability, reflecting both sides’ balanced scoring and defensive records and their frequent draws.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.