Salisbury vs Chichester City Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Salisbury
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Chichester City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Salisbury vs Chichester City
Salisbury vs Chichester City: Match Preview
Salisbury approach this FA Trophy tie in strong form, unbeaten in their last five matches (WWDWW) and having scored at least once in every outing. Their recent results include a 3-0 home win in the FA Cup and two consecutive away victories, highlighting both momentum and attacking consistency. Chichester City, meanwhile, have won three of their last five but have alternated wins and losses, conceding in four of those games and keeping just one clean sheet.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Salisbury's robust attack (2.0 goals per game over their last five) against a Chichester defence that allows 1.2 per match in the same span. Chichester themselves have scored 1.8 per game but have been less reliable defensively, especially away from home. Both sides have seen three BTTS results in their last five, and the majority of goals for both teams have come after the break (Salisbury: 7 second-half goals in five games). Set-piece and discipline data are unavailable, but neither side has shown a pattern of excessive cards in recent matches.
Given these trends, the model expects a competitive fixture with a moderate-to-high goal environment. Salisbury's home advantage and superior defensive record tip the balance, but Chichester's recent away scoring suggests they can contribute. The most likely scenario is a 2-1 home win, with the game opening up in the second half as both teams chase progression.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Salisbury vs Chichester City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Salisbury vs Chichester City that most previews miss.
- 1Salisbury have scored in all of their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game.
- 2Chichester City have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five outings, conceding 1.2 per match.
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and Salisbury's matches have produced ten second-half goals in that span.
Who do you think wins: Salisbury vs Chichester City?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Salisbury vs Chichester City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Salisbury and Chichester City average over 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five, with Salisbury at 2.0 and Chichester at 1.8, and three of the last five for each saw both teams score. The model assigns a 56% probability to over 2.5 goals based on these offensive rates and recent BTTS trends.
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Match Result: Salisbury Win
Salisbury come in on a nine-match unbeaten run (WWDWW) with 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game in their last five, while Chichester's away record is strong but from a lower division and against weaker opposition. The home win probability is 47%.
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More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Salisbury vs Chichester City Prediction
Salisbury's consistent scoring output and defensive solidity at home set them up as slight favourites against a Chichester City side who have travelled well but conceded regularly. With both teams showing a recent tendency for matches to go over 2.5 goals and three BTTS results in their last five, the statistical shape points to a match with attacking intent on both sides but a marginal edge for the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches, supporting a goals angle.
Defence
- →Salisbury average 2.0 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per match over their last five.
- →Chichester City have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 per game across their last five fixtures, with only one clean sheet.
How Salisbury and Chichester City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Salisbury vs Chichester City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Salisburylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chichester Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Salisbury are riding a strong run with four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring twice per game and conceding just 0.6. Chichester City have been more erratic, alternating wins and losses but still averaging 1.8 goals scored, though their defence has been breached in four of their last five.
Salisbury vs Chichester City — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Things to Watch: Salisbury vs Chichester City
- ⚠️No season-long home/away splits or league standings are available, reducing confidence in relative team strength.
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available, so historical matchup context is missing.
- ⚠️No odds are posted, so value and expected value calculations are limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Salisbury 2–1 Chichester CityThe model calls this 2-1 to Salisbury, with the strongest supporting number being Salisbury's 2.0 goals per game over their last five and their current unbeaten run. The main risk is Chichester's away scoring form against a Salisbury side whose season-long defensive rates are unknown, making a high-scoring draw or away upset plausible if the hosts underperform.
Salisbury vs Chichester City: Common Questions
Who will win Salisbury vs Chichester City?
Salisbury are rated 47% likely to win, with Chichester City at 25% and the draw at 28%. Salisbury's recent form (WWDWW) and 2.0 goals per game give them the edge, but Chichester's away scoring keeps it competitive.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Salisbury vs Chichester City?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 56%, with both teams averaging at least 1.8 goals scored per game in their last five and three of those matches featuring both teams scoring.
Are both teams likely to score in Salisbury vs Chichester City?
There is a 54% chance of both teams scoring, based on each side's BTTS count (three of last five) and Chichester's tendency to concede while still finding the net themselves.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Salisbury vs Chichester City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.