CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
CSKA Moscow
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Arsenal Tula
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: Match Preview
CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula meet with both sides showing attacking intent but defensive frailties. CSKA's recent run (LDWWL) includes a 3-1 home win over Arsenal Tula just six weeks ago, but they've also conceded four at Krasnodar and failed to keep a clean sheet all season. Arsenal Tula arrive with a similarly erratic record (LLWLW), alternating between heavy defeats and high-scoring wins, and have just one clean sheet in their last twelve.
The statistical matchup is defined by high output on both ends: CSKA’s home matches average 3.78 total goals, while Arsenal Tula’s away fixtures see 4.67. Both teams’ over 2.5 goal rates exceed 64%, and their BTTS rates are strong (3 of last 5 for both). CSKA generate far more shots (15.8 per game in last five) than Arsenal Tula (2.8), but Arsenal Tula are clinical with their limited opportunities, especially in second halves (5 of last 8 goals after the break). Set piece threat is moderate—corners are low (4.8 vs 2.0 per game), and cards are likely (both average over 2 yellows per match).
Given these rates, the model expects an open, balanced contest with both teams scoring and a high probability of three or more goals. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with the most probable scoreline 2-2, driven by both sides’ inability to defend leads and the frequency of multi-goal matches in their recent H2H history.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula that most previews miss.
- 1CSKA Moscow have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 14 matches this season.
- 2Arsenal Tula’s away games average 4.67 goals per match (16 scored, 12 conceded in 6).
- 3The last five H2H meetings have produced 19 goals, averaging 3.8 per game.
Who do you think wins: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
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Where the Model Sees Value: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average over 1.8 goals scored and nearly 2 conceded per game this season, with over 2.5 goals landing in 64–67% of their matches; the model gives a 68% probability for over 2.5.
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BTTS: Yes
Each side has seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5, and neither keeps clean sheets regularly (CSKA 0%, Arsenal Tula 8.3% season clean sheet rate), supporting a 66% BTTS probability.
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More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-scoring, balanced contest. Both CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula enter with nearly identical season scoring (1.79 vs 1.83 goals per game) and conceding rates (1.93 vs 2.08), and their recent form lines (LDWWL for CSKA, LLWLW for Arsenal Tula) reflect inconsistency but attacking output. The last two head-to-heads this season finished 3-1 and 1-1, further supporting an open encounter. CSKA's home matches average 3.78 total goals (18 for, 16 against in 9 games), while Arsenal Tula's away games see 4.67 goals on average (16 for, 12 against in 6). Both sides have a strong over 2.5 goals trend (CSKA 64%, Arsenal Tula 67%), and neither defence inspires confidence: CSKA have not kept a clean sheet all season, and Arsenal Tula just once in twelve. Shot volumes are lopsided—CSKA average 15.8 shots, Arsenal Tula just 2.8 in their last five—but Arsenal Tula convert a high proportion of their limited chances, especially late in games (5 second-half goals in last 5). The model expects both attacks to find the net, with the most likely scenario a score draw around 2-2. The lack of defensive reliability, high BTTS and over 2.5 rates, and recent H2H goal counts all point to a match decided by finishing rather than control. Margins are thin, and set pieces or late surges could easily swing it either way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams average over 1.8 goals scored and nearly 2 conceded per game this season.
- →CSKA Moscow have not kept a single clean sheet in 14 matches; Arsenal Tula only once in 12.
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64–67% of both teams’ fixtures.
🚩 CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for CSKA Moscow and 3.6 for Arsenal Tula, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How CSKA Moscow and Arsenal Tula Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CSKA Moscowlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Arsenal Tulalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CSKA Moscow’s last five matches (LDWWL) show a side capable of scoring but unable to shut teams out, with eight goals scored and eight conceded. Arsenal Tula’s recent form (LLWLW) is similarly volatile, mixing high-scoring wins with heavy defeats and showing a worrying defensive record, especially away from home.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
CSKA Moscow have the edge in the last ten meetings, winning five to Arsenal Tula’s three, but Arsenal Tula have managed two draws and several away goals. The last two clashes this season ended 3-1 to CSKA and 1-1, both at CSKA’s ground, highlighting the likelihood of goals and a close contest.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
CSKA Moscow wins
2
Draws
3
Arsenal Tula wins
Things to Watch: CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value estimation is not possible.
- ⚠️No current league standings data; relative strength inferred from season records and H2H.
- ⚠️Friendlies context may affect lineup strength and motivation, increasing variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CSKA Moscow 2–2 Arsenal TulaA 2-2 draw is the model’s call, underpinned by both teams’ high goals for and against rates and the complete lack of clean sheets on either side. The single strongest data point is the over 2.5 goals rate (over 64% for both teams), but if either attack is unusually wasteful or if lineups are rotated more than usual for a friendly, the scoring could drop below expectation.
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: Common Questions
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
The model rates this as a near-even contest: CSKA Moscow 34%, draw 33%, Arsenal Tula 33%. Both teams have similar season records and recent form, so a draw—most likely 2-2—is marginally favoured.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Yes is rated at 66% probability, with both teams averaging over 1.8 goals scored and nearly 2 conceded per game, and neither side keeping clean sheets regularly this season.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
The model gives a 68% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams’ over 2.5 rates above 64% and recent H2H matches averaging nearly 4 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.