Rotherham vs Crawley Town Predictions
League Two · England
Rotherham
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Crawley Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+16% edge)
Recommended Bets: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Rotherham vs Crawley Town: Match Preview
Rotherham and Crawley Town meet with both sides entrenched in the relegation zone, separated by just three points and a single place in the table. Rotherham's run of six home draws in seven highlights their inability to kill off games, while Crawley have lost seven of twelve and sit bottom, though they did claim a morale-boosting win at Oldham last time out. The urgency for points is acute, with both managers under pressure to tighten up defences that have shipped a combined 46 goals in 26 matches.
The underlying numbers point to a match defined by defensive frailty rather than attacking flair. Rotherham's home matches average 4 goals, but their clean sheet rate is a league-worst 7.1%. Crawley, meanwhile, have managed only one clean sheet in their last five and concede 1.75 per game on the road. Both sides have a recent trend of second-half goals (Crawley: 6 of last 7 goals after the break), and set-piece threat is moderate, with corners per game below league average (Rotherham 3.2, Crawley 3.8). Discipline could play a part, with Rotherham averaging 2.4 yellows and 0.6 reds in their last five matches.
With neither side able to rely on defensive solidity, the model expects a tense, scrappy contest likely to be decided in the second half. Rotherham's home draw rate and Crawley's slight uptick in away performance point towards a 1-1 scoreline, with both teams likely to find the net but lacking the quality to take full control. The draw offers the best value given the distribution of results and the underlying rates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Rotherham vs Crawley Town that most previews miss.
- 1Rotherham have drawn 71% of their home league games this season (5 of 7), the highest in League Two.
- 2Crawley Town have scored 6 of their last 7 goals in the second half, indicating a late-game scoring trend.
- 3Rotherham's matches average 3.07 total goals per game, but their clean sheet rate is just 7.1%.
Who do you think wins: Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Rotherham vs Crawley Town(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.53
The model gives a 33% draw probability (odds implied 28.6%), with both teams averaging over 1.25 goals conceded per game and a high rate of stalemates in Rotherham's home matches (5 draws in 7).
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The Case For This Rotherham vs Crawley Town Prediction
Both sides enter this fixture languishing at the foot of League Two, with Rotherham 22nd and Crawley Town 24th. Rotherham's recent form is poor, having failed to win in five (LLDDL) and conceding 10 goals in that span, while Crawley at least arrive off a rare away win but have only two victories in twelve league matches. The stakes are survival, with neither side able to afford another defeat. Statistically, this is a clash of leaky defences: Rotherham concede 1.79 goals per game, Crawley 1.75, and neither keeps clean sheets (7.1% and 8.3% clean sheet rates respectively). Rotherham's home matches average 4 goals (13 for, 15 against in 7), while Crawley's away games are tighter but still see 2.67 goals per match. Both teams have scored in 59% of their last five matches, with Rotherham failing to score twice and Crawley scoring in every recent outing. First-half goals have been rare for Crawley (just 1 in last 5), suggesting a slow start. Given the underlying rates, the likeliest outcome is a draw with both teams scoring. Rotherham's tendency to draw at home (5 of 7) and Crawley's marginally improved away attack (7 goals in 6) point towards a 1-1 or 2-1 either way, but neither has the defensive solidity to shut the other out. The match is expected to be cagey early, with the majority of goals coming after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Crawley Town have scored in all of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.4 goals per game in that span.
Defence
- →Rotherham average 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game this season.
- →Rotherham have drawn 5 of 7 home league games, with a 7.1% clean sheet rate.
🚩 Rotherham vs Crawley Town Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Rotherham and 4.8 for Crawley Town, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Rotherham and Crawley Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Rotherhamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Crawley Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rotherham are winless in their last five matches (LLDDL), conceding 10 goals and drawing three times at home in that span. Crawley Town have only one win in their last five (WDLLD), but have found the net in every game, showing slightly improved attacking output. Both teams are conceding at least 1.6 goals per match recently, underlining defensive issues.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Crawley Town have dominated recent meetings, winning four of the last six, including a 4-0 away win at Rotherham in 2025. The head-to-head record is lopsided in Crawley's favour, but the sample is small and spread over several seasons. Only one of the last three meetings has seen both teams score.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Rotherham wins
1
Draws
4
Crawley Town wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
The draw offers the clearest value, with the model's 33% probability outstripping the bookies' 28.6% implied by 3.5 odds. Both teams to score is priced too short relative to the model's estimate, while 'under 2.5 goals' is almost exactly in line with the underlying rates. The distribution of recent results and goal rates makes the draw the standout edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results, with high concession rates skewing the distribution.
- ⚠️Neither side has major injury absences, but red card frequency (Rotherham 0.6 per last 5) could disrupt the match flow.
- ⚠️Head-to-head sample is small and spans multiple seasons/leagues, so its predictive value is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Rotherham 1–1 Crawley TownA 1-1 draw is the model's call, anchored by Rotherham's extraordinary home draw rate (5 in 7) and both teams' inability to keep clean sheets. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if one side capitalises on defensive errors to run up a two-goal lead, but the overall distribution of results and goal rates points firmly towards parity.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town: Common Questions
Who will win Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
The model sees this as a near toss-up, with Rotherham given a 37% chance to win, Crawley Town 30%, and the draw the most likely single outcome at 33%. Rotherham's home draw rate and both teams' defensive records tilt the probabilities towards a stalemate.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Both teams to score is rated at 59%, with Rotherham conceding in 93% of home games and Crawley scoring in every one of their last five matches. Defensive frailty on both sides supports a high BTTS probability.
Is there value in backing the draw for Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Yes, the draw is priced at 3.5 (28.6% implied probability), while the model estimates a 33% chance. This +15.5% edge is driven by Rotherham's high home draw frequency and the teams' similar goal rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Rotherham vs Crawley Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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