Horsham vs Torquay Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Horsham
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Torquay
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Recommended Bets: Horsham vs Torquay
Horsham vs Torquay: Match Preview
Horsham come into this FA Trophy tie in robust form, unbeaten in their last five outings (WDWDW) and fresh from a 5-0 away demolition of Farnborough. Their attack has been reliable, averaging 2.2 goals per game over this stretch, and they have not failed to score in any of those matches. Torquay, meanwhile, have been more inconsistent but still dangerous, posting a 3-0 away win at Walton & Hersham and a 5-1 home victory over Slough Town in their last five, though they have also failed to score twice in that period. With both teams lacking recent home/away splits and standings data, the cup context levels the motivational field.
From a statistical perspective, the contest is shaped by strong defensive records and a shared tendency to do damage after half-time. Both sides have conceded just 0.8 goals per game across their last five, and each has a marked second-half scoring bias: Horsham have netted six of their last eleven after the interval, Torquay seven of their last eight. BTTS has landed in three of Horsham's last five and two of Torquay's, while only one of the last four H2H meetings has seen more than three goals. The absence of detailed set-piece and discipline data limits insight into those markets, but neither side has shown a recent propensity for high card counts.
The model projects a balanced, tactical match with scoring likely to be concentrated in the second half. The most probable outcome is a draw, with both sides likely to score but neither demonstrating enough attacking edge or defensive vulnerability to break the deadlock. The 1-1 result stands out as the likeliest scenario, consistent with recent H2H history and the underlying rates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Horsham vs Torquay Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Horsham vs Torquay that most previews miss.
- 1Horsham have scored in all of their last five matches, with no failed-to-score results in that span.
- 2Torquay's last five matches have produced just one clean sheet, but they have scored seven of their last eight goals after half-time.
- 3Three of the last four H2H meetings have ended with both teams scoring, and two finished level.
Who do you think wins: Horsham vs Torquay?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Horsham vs Torquay(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average under 2.5 goals per game in their last five (Horsham 2.2 scored/0.8 conceded, Torquay 1.8/0.8), and three of the last four H2H meetings have finished with exactly two or three goals, making a 1-1 draw the modal outcome.
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BTTS: Yes
Horsham have scored in all of their last five matches, while Torquay have failed to score only twice in the same span; both teams have a BTTS rate of at least 40% in recent games and the H2H is historically BTTS-friendly.
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More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Horsham vs Torquay Prediction
The data points to a tightly-matched contest with neither side holding a clear edge. Horsham arrive in strong form, unbeaten in five (WDWDW) and averaging 2.2 goals scored per game in that stretch, but Torquay have also posted two wins in their last three and matched Horsham's defensive record (both conceding just 0.8 per game over the last five). The H2H is finely balanced, with each team having won once in the last four and two games ending level. Statistically, the matchup profiles as low to mid-scoring. Horsham have kept two clean sheets in their last five and have not failed to score in that span, while Torquay's attack has been more inconsistent, blanking in two of five but exploding for five goals against Slough Town. Notably, both sides have a pronounced second-half scoring bias: Horsham have scored six of their last eleven goals after the break, Torquay seven of their last eight. This suggests a cagey opening half, with the contest likely to open up after the interval. With no major injuries and little to separate the sides on recent output, the model expects a competitive, tactical battle. The most probable scenario is a draw, with both teams likely to find the net but neither showing the firepower or defensive frailty to tip the balance decisively. The 1-1 scoreline emerges as the likeliest outcome, reflecting the statistical equilibrium between attack and defence.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Horsham are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring at least once in every game (2.2 goals per game).
- →Both teams have a strong second-half scoring trend: Horsham (6/11 goals), Torquay (7/8 goals) after half-time.
Defence
- →Torquay have matched Horsham defensively (0.8 goals conceded per game over last five) but have failed to score in two of their last five.
How Horsham and Torquay Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Horsham vs Torquay Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Horshamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Torquaylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horsham are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning three and drawing two, and have scored in every outing—highlighted by a 5-0 win at Farnborough. Torquay's form is patchier, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, but they have also demonstrated attacking potential with a 5-1 win over Slough Town. Both sides have conceded just 0.8 goals per game in this span, suggesting a closely-matched contest.
Horsham vs Torquay — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Horsham vs Torquay
The head-to-head record is finely poised, with one win each and two draws in the last four meetings. Three of those four matches have seen both teams score, and only one has produced more than three goals. The most recent encounter ended 1-1, mirroring the statistical balance between the sides.
Horsham vs Torquay Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
Horsham wins
1
Draws
2
Torquay wins
Things to Watch: Horsham vs Torquay
- ⚠️No season-long home/away splits or full league standings are available, reducing confidence in venue-based adjustments.
- ⚠️Absence of shot, possession, and set piece data limits precision on expected goal volume and set-piece threat.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value calculations and expected value on recommended bets are unavailable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Horsham 1–1 TorquayThe model predicts a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' recent defensive solidity (0.8 goals conceded per game each) and the historical balance in their head-to-head encounters. The most plausible way this projection goes wrong is if either side's second-half attacking surge produces a late winner, as both have shown the ability to score in bunches after the break.
Horsham vs Torquay: Common Questions
Who will win Horsham vs Torquay?
The model rates this as a near coin-flip, assigning 34% probability to a Horsham win, 33% to a draw, and 33% to a Torquay win. Both teams have shown similar form and defensive records, making a draw the most probable single outcome.
Will both teams score in Horsham vs Torquay?
Yes is favoured at 57% probability, as both teams have averaged at least 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last five, and three of the last four H2H meetings have seen both sides score.
How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Torquay?
The model leans slightly under 2.5 goals (52% under, 48% over), with a 74% chance of at least two goals. Both teams have shown second-half scoring strength but strong recent defensive records, pointing to a likely total of 2 goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Horsham vs Torquay: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Horsham vs Torquay Resources
Horsham Predictions
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Torquay Predictions
All Torquay fixtures & tips
Horsham vs Torquay Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Horsham — next match predictions
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Torquay — next match predictions
FA Trophy Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results