Valladolid vs Castellón Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Valladolid
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Castellón
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Castellón Win
Recommended Bets: Valladolid vs Castellón
Valladolid vs Castellón: Match Preview
Valladolid enter this fixture 13th in the table, having won four of their last six at home but conceding heavily in the process—19 goals allowed in 12 matches, with back-to-back home thrillers (4-3 vs Leganes, 2-3 vs Eldense). Castellón, by contrast, sit atop the standings with a formidable defence (just 5 conceded in 12) and the league’s best away record, collecting 16 points from 7 road games.
The statistical contrast is stark: Valladolid average 2.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per home match, while Castellón’s away defence allows just 0.57 per game. Castellón’s matches are generally lower scoring (over 2.5 in only 42%), but Valladolid’s recent home fixtures have bucked that trend. Set-piece data shows Valladolid winning 6 corners per home game, while Castellón’s away matches average just 3.2, suggesting the hosts may have an edge on dead-ball opportunities. Discipline is a concern for both: each side averages over two yellow cards per match in their last five.
The model expects Castellón’s defensive structure to absorb Valladolid’s early pressure, with the visitors likely to strike first and control the tempo. Valladolid’s attacking intent at home could create openings, but Castellón’s efficiency on the break and superior defensive record tip the balance. The most probable scoreline is a 2-1 away win, with Castellón’s away form and clean sheet rate the decisive factors.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Valladolid vs Castellón Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Valladolid vs Castellón that most previews miss.
- 1Castellón have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 league matches (58%), including 3 in their last 5.
- 2Valladolid’s last three home games have averaged 5.0 goals, but their season home over 2.5 rate is 67%.
- 3Castellón have scored first in 5 of their 7 away games, conceding only 4 goals on the road.
Who do you think wins: Valladolid vs Castellón?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Valladolid vs Castellón(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Castellón Win
Castellón’s away record (5 wins from 7, 11 scored, 4 conceded) and season-long defensive rate (0.42 goals conceded per game) give them a clear statistical edge over a Valladolid side with no draws at home and a 1.67/1.58 goals for/against profile.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite Valladolid’s recent high-scoring home games, Castellón’s matches have gone under 2.5 goals 58% of the time this season, and their defensive solidity (7 clean sheets in 12) suppresses the overall goal environment.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Valladolid vs Castellón Prediction
Statistically, this is a clash between a mid-table home side with attacking intent and the division’s most consistent defensive outfit. Valladolid’s home matches average 4.17 goals over the last three, but Castellón’s away record (11 scored, 4 conceded in 7) and 58% clean sheet rate point to a more controlled contest. The likeliest outcome is Castellón’s defensive structure limiting Valladolid’s output, with the visitors’ efficient attack capitalising on a home defence conceding 1.67 per match.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Valladolid’s home attack: 15 goals in 6 home games, but only 2 clean sheets all season.
- →Castellón’s season defensive rate: 0.42 goals conceded per game, 7 clean sheets in 12.
Match Context
- →Castellón’s away record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 11:4 goal difference.
🚩 Valladolid vs Castellón Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Valladolid and 4.8 for Castellón, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How Valladolid and Castellón Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Valladolid vs Castellón Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Valladolidlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Castellónlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Valladolid have won three of their last five, but defensive issues persist, conceding 8 in that stretch. Castellón are unbeaten in four (W3 D1), with three clean sheets and only one goal conceded in their last five league outings, underlining their status as the division’s most reliable defence.
Valladolid vs Castellón — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Valladolid vs Castellón
The recent head-to-head is split: Valladolid won 1-0 away last season, but Castellón responded with a 4-0 win at Valladolid. With only two meetings, there’s no clear trend, but both results were decisive away wins.
Valladolid vs Castellón Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Valladolid wins
0
Draws
1
Castellón wins
Things to Watch: Valladolid vs Castellón
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Valladolid’s recent home matches have been high-scoring outliers (4-3, 2-3, 5-0), raising variance in goal markets.
- ⚠️Small sample size in H2H (2 matches, split 1-1) limits predictive power.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Valladolid 1–2 CastellónThe model projects a 2-1 win for Castellón, driven by their league-best defensive record (0.42 goals conceded per game) and consistent away form. The main risk is Valladolid’s recent home goal surge, which could push the total higher or produce a draw if Castellón’s defence is breached early.
Valladolid vs Castellón: Common Questions
Who will win Valladolid vs Castellón?
Castellón are favoured with a 47% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Valladolid and 31% for the draw. This is based on Castellón’s away record (5 wins in 7) and defensive numbers (0.42 conceded per game).
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Castellón?
The model sees a near-even split, with 49% for both teams to score and 51% for at least one side to keep a clean sheet. Castellón’s 7 clean sheets in 12 and Valladolid’s 0 failed-to-score at home make this a finely balanced market.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, reflecting Castellón’s low-concession profile (42% of their games over 2.5) against Valladolid’s recent high-scoring home trend (67% over 2.5 at home).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Valladolid vs Castellón: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.