Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Ittihad FC
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Damac
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Ittihad FC Win
@ 1.17
Match Result
8.2/10Late En-Nesyri Strike Lifts Al-Ittihad Past Damac in Jeddah Thriller
Al-Ittihad FC clinched a dramatic 2-1 victory over Damac at King Abdullah Sports City, thanks to a last-gasp winner from Youssef En-Nesyri. The hosts dominated possession and created more chances, but were made to sweat after Damac clawed back into the contest in the second half. After taking the lead in the 24th minute, Al-Ittihad controlled much of the play, only for Damac to equalize in the 73rd minute and threaten to snatch a point. However, En-Nesyri's decisive goal in the 90th minute broke Damac hearts and secured all three points for the home side in a match full of attacking intent and late drama.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
24' — Goal
Al-Ittihad open the scoring, capitalizing on early dominance.
73' — Goal
Jonathan Okita draws Damac level, finishing a swift counter-attack.
90' — Goal
Youssef En-Nesyri nets the dramatic winner for Al-Ittihad.
81' — Yellow Card
Damac's only yellow card, reflecting growing tension late on.
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad produced a confident attacking display, enjoying 60% possession and registering 16 shots, 7 of which were on target. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to control the midfield and stretch Damac's defensive lines, especially through the creative play of Houssem Aouar and the pace of Steven Bergwijn. Despite conceding an equalizer in the second half, the team showed resilience and attacking urgency to find a late winner.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Damac
Damac set up in a compact 4-5-1, absorbing pressure and looking to counter. Despite having just 40% possession and only one corner, they managed 15 shots (8 on target), showing efficiency and threat on the break. Their equalizer in the 73rd minute was reward for their persistence, and they pushed Al-Ittihad hard in the closing stages before succumbing to a late goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Ittihad's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dictate play in midfield, with Fabinho and Al-Nashri providing a solid base and Aouar linking play to the attacking trio. The wide players, especially Bergwijn, stretched Damac's back four and created space for En-Nesyri. Damac, in contrast, packed the midfield in a 4-5-1, aiming to frustrate the hosts and spring forward through Okita and Sylla. Despite their defensive posture, Damac showed impressive efficiency on the break, but ultimately their inability to control possession or threaten from set pieces limited their chances. Substitutions in the second half saw both sides inject energy, but it was Al-Ittihad's attacking intent and tactical flexibility that paid dividends late on. Damac's defensive line, stretched by constant pressure, finally succumbed in stoppage time.
Turning Point
Youssef En-Nesyri's 90th-minute goal, which sealed the win for Al-Ittihad after Damac had fought back to level.
Man of the Match
Youssef En-Nesyri
Provided the decisive late winner and led the line with determination throughout.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.10
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–0
Al-Ittihad FC have a strong home record and Damac are among the league's lowest away scorers; the most likely outcome is a controlled home win with a clean sheet.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.22
Damac have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average less than a goal per game away, while Al-Ittihad keep clean sheets in 30% of matches and have conceded just 15 at home all season.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Al-Ittihad FC Win@ 1.17
Al-Ittihad's home form (9W in 15) and Damac's poor away record (2W in 15, -17 GD) point to a high probability of a home win, despite limited value at current odds.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Prediction
Al-Ittihad FC come into this fixture as clear favorites, boasting a strong home record and facing a Damac side struggling for both goals and results, especially away from home. The hosts' defensive solidity and Damac's attacking woes suggest a low-scoring match with Al-Ittihad likely to control proceedings. The data points towards a professional, possibly routine, home win with limited threat from the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H shows Al-Ittihad unbeaten in last 4 at home vs Damac.
Attack
- →Damac average just 0.8 goals per game away and have failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
Defence
- →Al-Ittihad FC's 9 home wins from 15 and only 15 goals conceded at home.
- →Damac's away record: 2 wins, 8 losses, 29 conceded in 15 games.
- →Al-Ittihad have 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and have conceded just 1.0 goals per game recently.
🚩 Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Al-Ittihad FC and 3.6 for Damac, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Al-Ittihad FC and Damac Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Ittihad FClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Damaclast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Ittihad FC have had mixed results recently, with a win, two losses, a draw, and another win in their last five, but have kept three clean sheets and remain strong at home. Damac, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five and failed to score in three, highlighting their ongoing struggles in attack and form.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac
The last ten meetings have been relatively close, but Al-Ittihad have won four and drawn four, with Damac only winning twice. Recent matches in Jeddah have favored Al-Ittihad, who often keep Damac to a single goal or less, and the last meeting ended 1-1 in Damac.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Al-Ittihad FC wins
3
Draws
2
Damac wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac
There is limited value on the main markets with the model and bookmaker odds closely aligned, especially for the home win and BTTS 'no'. The best relative value may be on the correct score or under 2.5 goals, but the edge is marginal. Punters should be cautious as the market appears efficient for this fixture.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac
- ⚠️Al-Ittihad's recent form is mixed (DWLLW) and they have failed to score in 2 of last 5.
- ⚠️Damac have shown occasional resilience, with 11 draws this season.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but late lineup changes could affect dynamics.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for several recent games reduce confidence in set piece and discipline markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.